Now the expectations game gives way to the main event. For weeks, the sherpas – those who guide the leaders to the summit – have been engaged in the age-old political sport of managing hopes. Last week word came that the G8 would split, as Tony Blair would side with his colleagues against George Bush over the issue of climate change. That duly brought dire expectations of failure at Gleneagles: the club of powerful nations would break up into a G7 and a G1.
In the last few days, things have been looking up. First came US agreement to a package aimed at forgiving the debt of 18 of the world's poorest nations. Then came hints that George Bush might even move towards the rest of the world on the issue of climate change. In Denmark today, Bush finally voiced the view his G8 partners accepted long ago – that human beings are contributing to the problem of global warming. As he put it, making a stop in Copenhagen en route to Scotland: "Listen, I recognise the surface of the earth is warmer, and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem." That remark suggests Tony Blair is going to get what he wants this week – a final communique that has all the leaders on the same page.
But expectations have been raised higher for this summit than for any previous G8 gathering. The Live 8 concerts threw a spotlight on this meeting that was absent when the world leaders met in Halifax or Sea Island. Thanks to Bono, Bob Geldof et al, there are many people who will be satisfied with nothing less than a declaration to change the world.
In part that is to the British government's credit. With Britain in the chair, this G8 is going to debate two issues that were once the sole province of charity groups and do-gooding lefties: Africa and the environment. At last, this is a foreign policy initiative that befits a Labour government. Labour supporters who loathed the Iraq war, and continue to dislike Blair's close relationship with Bush, can at least celebrate this effort.
Will it bear fruit? It won't bring all that the protesters, or even Geldof and Bono, would want. The question of fair trade will be put off until trade talks in Hong Kong later this year; and the debt forgiveness package is bound to have holes. And even if language on climate change can be crafted to bring the US on board, a declaration is not the same as action.
For all that, the agenda at Gleneagles consists of issues that were once confined to the margins. And that represents a kind of victory in itself.
