Since the signing of the Atlantic charter in 1941, the central tenet of British foreign policy is that the UK can act as a bridge between the US and Europe, or as a pivot on which transatlantic relations turn.
But the larger question posed by Donald Trump’s visit to the UK this week for British policymakers is whether this role remains credible when the two seem to be drifting further apart, and so few in Europe would choose the UK to mediate anything.
Before his visit, Trump has been quite explicit in interviews that the British divorce from the EU should mean a stronger alliance with the US and looser relations with Brussels, which he detests.
If necessary, the UK should walk out on Europe, refuse to pay the bills and seal a quick bilateral trade agreement with Washington that can act as a substitute for the loss of access to markets in Europe. It is a version of the advice the president gave the UN general assembly last year: reject the ideology of globalism and embrace the doctrine of blue-collar patriotism.
John Bolton, the US national security adviser, has also been explicit in telling British audiences that the corollary of Brexit can be a closer relationship with the US.
“As a separate nation again, Britain’s impact on the world has the prospect of being even greater. I think it will help us in Nato in particular to have another strong and independent country that will help Nato to be more effective, and that has to be a plus,” he said. “America declared its independence once, and we made out OK.”
Bolton even suggested that, freed from EU, the UK might break with Germany and France by joining the US in rejecting the Iran nuclear deal.
It is conceivable that Boris Johnson, should he become prime minister, might want to chart Bolton’s course. But for the moment, the difficulty for the UK is that there is effectively no one at the helm. Trump is undertaking a state visit at a time when the Queen is head of state but there is no fully functioning state.
As such, in between the pomp and circumstance, it will mainly be a time for testing the parameters of the future relationship. Transatlanticists, such as Johnson, see huge potential for cooperation. If there is to be a no-deal Brexit, how quickly and on what terms could the UK and US lower tariffs? If this is to happen as early as October, the details of a trade deal need nailing down.
Equally, Britain will be looking for details on national security cooperation, including on Huawei. Last week Bolton gave the impression there was a confluence of British and US technical thinking.
In discussing the Middle East – Britain’s other great concern – Whitehall will politely make the case for consistent US engagement. On Libya, Syria and Yemen, Washington’s thinking often seems opaque, the subject of unresolved interagency rivalries or at the whim of an early morning presidential tweet.
Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, will brief UK officials on his soon to be released Middle East plan, which emphasises economic but not political rights for Palestinians, such as the two-state solution in which the UK and the Arab world still believes. Britain will argue the Kushner plan is necessary but not sufficient for peace.
Ministers will look into whether the US believes the intelligence exists to justify a military assault on Iran’s proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. If not, what evidence is there to show the US strategy of maximum economic pressure is strengthening internal opposition to the government in Tehran, or bringing the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, closer to the negotiating table? Is Trump really willing to impose sanctions on European companies over Iran?
For all the talk about strengthening links with the US and the markets of the future, there will be many in Whitehall urging caution about letting the bridge to Europe fall into disrepair, and ridiculing Trump’s suggestion that a US trade deal can compensate for the loss of European markets.
But for the next few days at least, expect the Conservative party to be lured by Trump’s siren voice. It will be music to their ears.
