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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Joe Harker

Will disruption to oil prices affect Brits at the petrol pump?

Attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities over the weekend disrupted five per cent of the world's oil supply, causing global prices to rise significantly.

It was the biggest ever one-day disruption to the world's oil output, leading to fears that higher oil prices will have a knock on effect on petrol prices.

Will the attacks in Saudi Arabia mean people end up having to spend more to fill up the tank?

The Claim

The Daily Express reports fuel prices could rise by as much as 4p per litre.

After the attack global oil prices rose by 19.5 per cent, the largest rise in almost 30 years, and fears of higher prices at the petrol pump were sparked.

More expensive oil means higher costs in the production of petrol, which always carries a risk of those increased costs being passed down the line until the consumer foots a bigger part of the bill.

The Metro reports price rises could be even worse, with increases of up to 7.5p per litre over the coming weeks if tensions continue to rise.

The real problems would occur if the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supply is transported, was sealed due to attacks in the region. That could see petrol prices rise by up to 20p per litre in what would be considered a worst case scenario.

The Counter Claim

However, while some analysts are predicting price rises others believe the overall impact on consumers will be small.

The Independent reports that some experts believe any price rises for oil won't fully be passed onto the public and any shock from the disruption will be minimal.

Simon Williams of the RAC said wholesale prices of petrol and diesel will rise a little bit but that might not be passed on to the public as retailers have just enjoyed a period of lower wholesale costs.

Since they didn't pass their savings onto consumers until September 13, the day before the attacks, they ought to have a cushion to absorb any wholesale price rises for a while without raising the costs for consumers.

He did warn that a sustained disruption would leave retailers more justified in raising prices, with "several pence a litre" being added on unless tensions calm down once again.

The Facts

Petrol is made by heating crude oil until it boils to produce different liquids and gases. 

Professor Nick Butler of King's College London noted that the global oil market had quickly adjusted to past political events disrupting the supply, saying that the loss of over two million barrels a day from Venezuela and Iran hadn't had a catastrophic effect on prices.

In the UK only 40 per cent of the price of a litre of petrol consists of the price of production and profit, the majority of the cost is tax. VAT and the 57.95 pence per litre fuel duty on petrol the government takes most of the money spent on fuel.

While the experts are split over whether petrol prices will rise for the public in the short term they appear to agree that a sustained disruption to the global oil supply will inevitably see prices rise at the pumps by several pence.

Part of the problem with the split opinion is that it is just be too early to say for sure what the impact will be. Retailers might decide to pass the costs of wholesale price rises onto the public or they could choose to absorb some of those costs as they didn't pass their recent savings down the line either. 

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