I asked if U.S. natural gas was entering a new era in a March 19, 2026, Barchart article. I concluded the article with the following:
Natural gas entered a new era after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The war in Iran and Iran’s regional retaliation only exacerbate the changes for the energy commodity.
U.S. natural gas prices have declined, but given supply concerns in Europe and Asia, the seasonal weakness in U.S. prices could be short-lived.
The U.S. is now in the shoulder season for demand
Each year, the peak demand season for U.S. natural gas runs from November through March, when inventories decline due to winter heating demand. Stockpiles tend to reach an annual low in March when the injection season begins to increase inventories. Winter is the peak heating season, and summer is the peak cooling season. As natural gas is a critical input in electricity generation, extreme cold or heat during winter or summer can affect prices. Spring is typically the shoulder season for natural gas, when heating and cooling demand declines, weighing on prices.
The monthly continuous U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures chart shows that the most recent price peak at $5.496 per MMBtu occurred in December 2025 as the market moved into the peak heating season. Prices have dropped to the most recent low of $2.561 per MMBtu in April 2026, during the first month of the shoulder season.
U.S. inventories are higher than in past years
U.S. natural gas inventories reached a low of 1.829 trillion cubic feet during the 2025/2026 withdrawal season, which was higher than at the end of the 2024/2025 season, which ended with 1.698 trillion cubic feet. However, the 2023/2024 withdrawal season ended with U.S. inventories at a far higher 2.259 trillion cubic feet.
As of the week ending on April 17, 2026, natural gas stocks across the United States at 2.063 trillion cubic feet were 7.4% higher than the same time in 2025, and 7.1% above the five-year average for mid-April. The bottom line is that natural gas inventories are higher than in past years, which is contributing to the current price weakness during the 2026 shoulder season.
European prices remain elevated due to Ukraine and the Middle East
While U.S. natural gas prices have slipped, prices in Europe have moved higher. The war in Ukraine and hostilities in the Middle East have impacted European supplies.
The monthly chart of U.K. natural gas futures shows that the price in April 2026 is over 41% above the April 2025 closing price.
The monthly chart of Dutch natural gas futures shows that the price of the energy commodity in the Netherlands in April 2026 is 37.4% above the April 2025 closing price.
U.K. and Dutch natural gas prices, along with Asian prices, soared in March 2026 amid supply fears sparked by hostilities in the Middle East. The price action in 2022 reflects the potential for even higher prices if supply concerns increase over the coming weeks and months. U.K. and Dutch natural gas prices soared in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, impacting natural gas flows through Russian pipelines to Western Europe. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia have kept European prices elevated, increasing the demand for liquefied natural gas from other suppliers. Given Iran’s retaliatory strikes against neighboring Middle Eastern countries that produce and export LNG, supplies from the region have become problematic.
U.S. LNG to the rescue
The United States is the world’s leading natural gas-producing country.
The chart shows that the United States is the leading natural gas-producing country by far. Supply concerns over Russian and Middle Eastern natural gas will likely increase demand for U.S. natural gas that can be shipped by ocean vessel to countries where prices are far higher. While U.S. natural gas inventories are higher than last year and the five-year average in mid-April 2026, the rising demand for U.S. LNG could keep prices elevated over the coming months. A hotter-than-normal U.S. summer, which increases cooling demand above seasonal norms, may only add to the price support.
Expect higher lows in U.S. natural gas futures
Natural gas prices have experienced seasonal price action over the past few years, but since the June 2020 low, the energy commodity has had a bullish bias.
The seven-year monthly chart shows that NYMEX U.S. natural gas futures reached a low of $1.517 in June 2020 and a higher low of $1.60 per MMBtu in February 2024. The most recent April 2026 low of $2.561 was slightly above the November 2024 low of $2.514 per MMBtu.
As European and Asian LNG demand rises due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and hostilities in the Middle East, demand for U.S. LNG could rise, keeping prices elevated and above critical technical support levels. The differential between U.S. and European/Asian natural gas prices could prove bullish for NYMEX U.S. natural gas futures over the coming months if hostilities continue or escalate.
