Get all your news in one place.
100's of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Irish Mirror
Irish Mirror
National
Cormac O'Shea

Will coronavirus die out in Ireland? Experts give their views on swift end to pandemic

One of the big questions Irish people are asking Google every day is whether the coronavirus will soon die out.

The Republic of Ireland's opening plan will not see a resumption to normality until August at the earliest but some believe it could be sooner.

Experts, including a nobel prize winning scientist, think the virus could die out and the world could resume sooner than we think.

Authorities however have warned that this thinking could be "dangerous" and lead to a worse pandemic if people begin to relax.

Here's the thoughts of experts and officials on if the Covid-19 pandemic could burn itself out here in Ireland.

Professor Michael Levitt

Nobel Prize winning scientist Michael Levitt believes that the virus was never growing exponentially and that lockdowns were an over the top measure.

The Stanford University professor predicted cases in China would taper out at around 80,000, with 3,250 deaths.

Here in May China currently has a total of 82,885 cases and 4,633 deaths.

Speaking to Unherd.com Professor Levitt said: "I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden.

"They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases.

"They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.

“There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor."

Speaking to Independent.ie the scientist said Ireland's cases will begin to taper off around the 30,000 mark.

World Health Organisation

Michael Ryan, the World Health Organisation’s Executive Director of Health Emergencies, was asked on Monday about the concept of herd immunity.

Mr Ryan said: "This idea that, 'well, maybe countries who had lax measures and haven't done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?' This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation.

(AFP via Getty Images)

“Humans are not herds. As such, the concept of herd immunity is generally reserved for calculating would need to be vaccinated in order to obtain that same effect. I think we need to be very careful when we use terms around natural infections of humans because it can lead to a brutal arithmetic, which does not put people, life and suffering at the center of that equation.”

Prof Isaac Ben-Israel

Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, Israeli academic, who is head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, said that the coronavirus peaks after 40 days and dies out within 70.

In a self-published article the scientist said: "Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries.

"Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including the paralysis of the economy, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life."

Irish experts

The Irish emergency team are not going by herd immunity and are warning people that the worst may not be over if people don't continue to follow guidelines.

Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Health. (Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin)

Dr Holohan said: "As we approach May 18th, the next date highlighted in the Government's roadmap, we continue to monitor key parameters associated with Covid-19. These include the number of new cases, numbers admitted to hospitals and currently in ICU and the number of deaths.

"While 43% of the population believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, the virus is still circulating, the risk is still there in our communities. The health service will continue to prepare and respond to the virus, the public are asked to stay the course and keep up the progress we have made.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100's of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.