Some final words ...
Nearly four months after June 23’s fateful Brexit vote, even more half baked nonsense is still being talked by both sides than was spouted during the shabby campaign. Nothing is clear except that it is all going to be a lot trickier to disengage from the EU than some foolish people said – and still say despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
So my starting point is one of humility as I learn stuff I didn’t known before. It’s safe to say that some things will be better outside the EU, others worse, some sectors and individuals will thrive, others languish. The consequences of Britain’s leap in the dark – 37% of the total electorate voted Brexit by a very slender margin – are still largely unknown for all 28 members states. Only charlatans and romantics pretend otherwise.
I like to quote one of Fleet St’s most celebrated columnists at this point. In an article published by the Telegraph on May 12 2013 he wisely wrote:
If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate and we would have to recognize that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels, but by chronic British short termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.”
Did Boris Johnson believe what he wrote then? It’s never easy to tell when the man “most trusted” by Brexit voters opens his mouth. But he was right. Whatever you regard as Britain’s big mistakes in recent decades – poor bank regulation, Iraq, privatization, PFI, the failure to build new runways or HS2 – have been our own mistakes. Europe has mostly been the scapegoat.
That is my chief fear for the future. However much “sovereignty” ( let alone cash) we get back from Brussels in reality, however successful and sophisticated a deal we negotiate with generous-spirited EU leaders and new trading partners, it is all going to take a lot of time and effort. The City’s insurance, for which the single market never worked well, will adapt and survive. Banks, UK tourism and farming may flourish while those Japanese car makers desert Sunderland for somewhere cheaper inside the Eurozone. Or they may not.
But the process is bound to disappoint many people, Brexit voters as well as Remainers, because Brexit was oversold as a panacea. With no EU whipping boy to blame for things which were actually our own fault – eh, Boris !! – the search will start for new scapegoats ( some of them very old ones too). Populist politicians and cynical newspapers will encourage it to mask the failure of their predictions. Some people claim to detect such stirrings in this week’s Tory conference speeches.
I think that’s premature and hope they’re wrong. I also hope the Brexit optimists are triumphantly vindicated in their vision of a prosperous new Britain. But, like Boris before his Brexit flip flop, I have my doubts.
Thanks everyone
We will be wrapping up the debate in the next four minutes, but we welcome any final comments and remarks.
We will keep comments open until 2.15pm
'Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen'
A view from Nigel Stern, who runs a design agency in London:
The biggest impact will hiring staff with the right skills. It’s already almost impossible to find skilled staff for our design agency - I say this having battled to keep an Australian whose Visa ran out, and lost the battle. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be when Brexit happens. Good skills are literally the biggest growth driver, so for my business Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen
Updated
'I no longer feel safe in this country'
An anonymous take from a bookseller, who thinks that Brexit will be bad for business and will have profound consequences for non-British citizens living and working in the UK.
I am a small on-line antiquarian and used bookseller. Since Brexit I have noticed an uptick in sales to the United States, but I have noticed a distinct decline in sales to Europe, though they do still take place. The effect of Brexit on Europe’s perception of Britain as a country is very negative - and the announcements from the Tory party conference will only reinforce the impression that Britain is not opening up for business. In fact, the very reverse: closing down for business and pursuing policies of discrimination against foreigners, especially from Europe.
The level of discrimination against immigrants from Europe is most definitely alienating what should be Britain’s closest friends. As someone with a slight foreign accent I no longer feel entirely safe in this country. A hard Brexit would be a disaster for me - as many books go abroad and the customs paperwork would add a considerable workload as well as extra costs in the case of more valuable books. There literally is not a single advantage to be derived from Brexit except for the lower pound, which could have been lowered by other means which would have done far less damage to Britain’s economy and society. I don’t know whether in future I will be able to continue business in this country and am wondering whether to move elsewhere.
What about Scotland?
News of job losses in Scotland are alarming.
The Scottish economy would suffer a severe shock if the UK has a “hard Brexit”, losing up to 80,000 jobs and seeing wages fall by £2,000 a head per year, an economics thinktank has warned.
The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has told the Scottish parliament that entirely leaving the EU single market – known as a hard Brexit – would see the Scottish economy decline by 5% overall, or by £8bn within a decade.
What do you think? Share your views below the line.
Brexit will hurt, but we don't know how much
One commenter says that Brexit will cause some economic pain, although the extent of this is not yet known.
Here’s a view from Richard Rose, who is worried about Brexit’s impact on the car industry.
I am an engineer working at Rolls-Royce in Derby but I have spent most of my working life so far in the car industry. I am 100% certain that if the UK Brexits out of the single market, it can wave ¾ of its car industry goodbye within 5 years. The idea of replacing the current arrangement with one of tit-for-tat tariffs on cars sold into and out of the UK is preposterous – we will be in the absurd situation of paying taxpayers’ cash to car companies in the form of ongoing subsidies, and every successive government will be looking for ways to reduce or avoid these payments every four years.
The whole arrangement sounds ridiculous and seeing as all the manufacturers who build here have sites inside the Eurozone where they can avoid all that uncertainty, what do you think they’ll do? Its keeping me awake at night as I feel ‘my’ industry is potentially about to be rendered economically unviable just as my right to live and work abroad is being curtailed.
Is the threat from Nissan to switch investment away a sign of what's to come?
Quitting the European Union’s single market is considered bad for business unless you belong to the small band of economists who believe that Brussels’ employment and environmental protections stifle innovation, that maintaining a low pound is easier outside the EU, and restrictions on migrants is unlikely to ever be enforced.
But the threat from Nissan to switch investment in its next car away from the north east without some form of compensation is the clearest indication yet that multinationals based in the UK to benefit from the single market are going to drift away as they consider an upgrade or new factory that would be cheaper abroad.
Updated
'I don't want to uproot but it may be necessary'
John Flahive, 51, a documentary producer and sales agent, is concerned about the implications of a “hard Brexit” on his business.
The impact on business is inevitably negative. At the moment we have free movement of goods throughout the EU, all I have to do in my own business is put an address on a shipment and off it goes. It’s just not possible for whatever is put in its place to improve on that.
A ‘trade deal’ usually involves reduced tariffs which is a dis-improvement on no tariffs at all. This would bring back customs paperwork and all the associated admin, whereas currently we have none at all. There is no upside, only a downside.
As for non-EU trade, there is nothing about Brexit that makes its prospects better, and Brexiteers rhetoric that which suggests EU trade being at the expense of relationships elsewhere is false. There never has been anything about EU membership that’s constrained trade elsewhere.
Brexit does not make my company’s or any company’s business any more inherently attractive to clients in the USA, Australia, Japan etc. Its a basic matter of having something to sell that they are interested in buying and if a transaction makes economic sense.
Up to now selling to the UK was the same thing as selling to the EU where the UK could be a distribution point for the entire single market, that’s no longer possible after Brexit as it would involve a second set of customs hurdles if single market membership is not sustained.
Relocating my business elsewhere in the EU is something that I could do, in my case to Ireland. I don’t particularly want to uproot after 30 years here but it may well be necessary in the event of a hard Brexit. At the moment like so many other businesses, I’m waiting to see, all that there’s been is a vote but nothing on what Brexit actually means. The appointment of Theresa May did reassure that there would be sane heads making the decisions, but Tory party conference only suggests hubris on the part of Brexiteers, and no facing up to the huge difficulties it all involves. One got the impression that Theresa May is being swept along.
Is telling NHS doctors to go home madness?
This has just launched online. Polly Toynbee asks why the health secretary would insult the one third of our doctors who were born abroad by suggesting that they’re only “interim”.
Hunt’s claim that we will be “self-sufficient” in medical staff is nonsense – and he knows it. These new doctors won’t qualify as consultants until 2030, while everywhere has ageing populations and the WHO estimates a global shortage of 2 million doctors. The number of people in Britain over the age of 85 will double by 2037 – and who is to care for them if we chase away all foreigners?
Will Brexit ruin our image abroad?
An interesting take from one commenter below the line:
The main reason I don't think it'll be good for business is the way it is and has effected Britain's image around Europe and probably the world. Made in Britain isn't actually very popular in Europe at the moment. When I am with my girlfriend in Spain what image of Britain is on the television? Farage, Boris Johnson and their xenophobic rhetoric. After all it's the consumers who are the most important when it comes to our exports. Do you really want to buy goods from a nation who's image is one of distaste and xenophobia to their neighbours. Look at the effect the Iraq war had on French products in the U.S when they went ( rightfully ) against the Iraq war.... Everything Farage and Boris do is making it far easier for the E.U to take a tough stance in negotiations with support from their people. Especially when they act so arrogantly by saying the E.U has too much to lose and will have to take any deal we offer.
Brexiters seem to have no idea on how politics will effect us more than anything else.
Comments are open below the line and our debate is underway.
Kicking us off from the form is a small business owner in the south east of England, who has noted a definite impact of the vote:
I’ve already seen an impact in car buying attitudes in the months following the referendum. Traditionally, September is a busy time for my business (my company move new and used cars around the U.K.) and already the volume of movements compared to March and this time last year is worrying.
Every dealership I visit, staff say the same thing; “It’s unusually quite for this time of year”. The uncertainty created by the referendum is clearly having an affect and I worry for the future of my business once article 50 is triggered. If people are out of work they won’t be buying cars, meaning I won’t be moving them round the U.K.
Updated
Brexit will cost the UK 4% growth in coming years
Polly Toynbee raised some interesting questions about the impact of hard Brexit this week. She wrote:
As speech after speech salutes “taking back control” as “a fully independent sovereign country”, only old sober-sides Philip Hammond throws cold water. There is a price to pay, he warns. He didn’t disagree with Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that Brexit will cost the UK 4% in growth in coming years.
Welcome to the debate
Theresa May made one thing perfectly clear during this year’s Conservative party conference: Brexit means Brexit.
The Tory leader said controlling immigration and withdrawing from the jurisdiction of the European court of justice would be her priorities during European Union (EU) exit. She says Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March 2017.
The government also plans to force companies to disclose how many foreign workers they employ, with business leaders describing it as divisive and damaging.
But what impact will all this have on Britain’s businesses? Mike Cherry, the national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, said: “Fundamentally, the UK has been a global magnet for talent and this must be considered by ministers. The ability to hire the right people for the right job is paramount, and we will be championing this in the upcoming consultation.”
There are also concerns about the impact of Brexit on Scotland. An economics thinktank has warned that the Scottish economy would suffer a severe shock if the UK has a “hard Brexit”, losing up to 80,000 jobs and seeing wages fall by £2,000 a head per year.
However, May says she aims to improve UK workers’ rights. She described the Brexit vote as a “quiet revolution” in which “millions of our fellow citizens stood up and said they were not prepared to be ignored anymore”. She said it was time to take back control and shape our future here in Britain. “To build an outward-looking, confident, trading nation here in Britain. To build a stronger, fairer, brighter future here in Britain. That is the opportunity we have been given.”
What do you think? Will a so-called “hard Brexit” ruin many UK companies? How can businesses survive without foreign talent? What about Scotland? Or do you think workers’ rights will improve?
Share your thoughts with us from 12 noon until 2pm.
What we know for sure is that Brexit of any substantial kind will certainly cause some economic pain in the short, medium, and long-term, from breaking existing trading relationships and loss of easy access to a large pool of human capital. The additional opportunities, on the other hand, are all long to very long-term, and are uncertain and beyond the UK's control.
Even the bits which are under the UK's control (like massive investment in training and education in a way which actually achieves something instead of pfaffing around with needless re-structuring and testing kids to the edge of mental breakdown) are all things that would have made sense before, so it's optimistic to imagine that they'll happen in a future where the public finances are under more pressure than ever before (once Brexit decline takes hold).
All in all, it's a recipe for return to slow stagnation at best, which has been the UK's lot for most of the twentieth century, assuming that financial and political crises can be avoided.
But hey, in the very, very long run everything will be run by self-building robots, so we won't need an economy in the current sense anyway. So there's that to look forward to.