Even though the proposed alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (Secular) for the Lok Sabha elections appears set to emerge as a potent electoral combination to counter the Congress’s surge in Old Mysore region, a question mark hangs over the alliance partners’ ability to consolidate their respective votes for a common goal.
The tie-up proposal comes at a time when the Congress, after its landslide victory in the recent Assembly elections, is looking to further its political domination in the region with the help of the guarantee schemes ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
For the JD(S), still licking the wounds inflicted by its traditional rival Congress in the Old Mysore region, a tie-up with the national party making a serious bid to return to power at the Centre may help resuscitate it. Similarly, an alliance with the JD(S) will help boost the BJP’s electoral strength in Old Mysore region. The saffron party, which has not been able to make much headway in the region, could capitalise on the political strength of the JD(S), which has retained its cadre despite the electoral reverses.
Transfer of votes easy?
Though both the parties stand to mutually benefit from the understanding, the possibility of an eventual transfer of each other’s votes for a common electoral goal – of defeating the Congress – will become clearer only after the seat sharing arrangement is finalised.
During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, a seat-sharing arrangement between the “secular” allies JD(S) and Congress proved to be counter productive in most of the constituencies in the State, particularly in Old Mysore region.
However, political observers point out that the BJP could turn out to be a more “natural ally” to the JD(S) than the Congress with whom it has fought pitched electoral battles in the region for decades.
Tricky question of seat sharing
The question of seat sharing could turn out to be tricky for the alliance partners particularly in Lok Sabha constituencies like Mandya and Hassan, where the BJP is pitted against the JD(S).
Though Sumalatha, Mandya MP, who is the target of criticism by the JD (S), was elected as an Independent, defeating former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil, she declared her support to the BJP government at the Centre ahead of the recent Assembly elections.
Similar concerns have been expressed in Hassan, where the BJP workers will be left in a fix after fighting the JD(S) in its bastion for decades. In the recent years, the BJP has grown in the district, securing a second place after the JD(S). Of the seven Assembly seats in Hassan district, the JD(S) has won four, while the BJP secured two. Hassan Assembly seat witnessed a high-voltage fight between Preetham Gowda of the BJP and H.P. Swaroop of the JD(S) and the latter won. If there is an alliance, there are chances of the BJP leaving Hassan seat for the JD(S).
Congress surge
Meanwhile, the Congress, euphoric after its triumph in the Assembly polls, is keen to repeat the performance in the Lok Sabha polls by not only firming up its electoral grip over the region through the guarantee schemes, but also exploiting the anti-incumbency against the 10-year-old Modi government at the Centre over rise in prices of essential commodities like LPG, petrol etc. The unprecedented turnout of beneficiaries for the recent launch of Gruha Lakshmi scheme in Mysuru demonstrated a perceptible sway of the party.
Even though retaining the Vokkaliga vote in as much measure as it won during the Assembly polls could prove to be a challenge for the Congress, which is sitting pretty with the support of the Dalits, Minorities and OBCs, KPCC spokesperson H.A. Venkatesh feels the growing popularity of party leader Rahul Gandhi, particularly after his Bharat Jodo yatra passed through the region, will hold the party in good stead even if the BJP rakes up emotional issues of Ram Temple and INDIA versus BHARAT debate in the run-up to the polls.
