KANSAS CITY, Mo. — When they met earlier this season, the Buffalo Bills looked to limit Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack. And that happened. Mahomes threw for 225 yards, well below his league-leading 316-yard average.
But that left Buffalo vulnerable to the run. Rookie Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 161 yards. The Chiefs ran 46 times for 245 yards overall, both high marks for an Andy Reid-coached Chiefs team.
Will that happen again?
Not getting beat deep was the best way to hang with the Chiefs, the Bills believed, and Buffalo did that. The Chiefs converted a third-and-12 on a 37-yard completion to Byron Pringle to set up the game-icing field goal.
Look for the Bills to apply more defensive balance Sunday.
“We went into it saying 'OK, they’re not going to beat us over the top,' ” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier said. “They were hitting so many explosives, and they’re still doing it. We just weren’t going to give up the explosive passes, and that’s the way we played.
“We said, 'OK, we’re going to dare them to stay with the run game,' and lo and behold, they stayed with it, and had a lot of success running the football.”
Here’s how this AFC Championship Game might play out.
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WHEN THE CHIEFS PASS
Here’s a crazy stat: Last week, the Chiefs passed for more than 300 yards for the first time since their Dec. 13 victory over Miami, and two quarterbacks were responsible. Patrick Mahomes had thrown for 255 yards when he left the game, and Chad Henne added 68.
What didn’t change was the Chiefs’ talent on the receiving end. Tyreek Hill (110 yards against the Browns) and Travis Kelce (109) became the second pair of Chiefs to top 100 receiving yards in a playoff game. It also happened in 1971, in a Divisional Round loss to the Dolphins in overtime, with running back Ed Podolak (110) and wide receiver Elmo Wright (104) both eclipsing the century mark.
Edge: Chiefs
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WHEN THE CHIEFS RUN
Against the Browns, Edwards-Helaire was out. And Le’Veon Bell got 11 snaps. For the first time in his career, Darrel Williams started, and he responded with the best game of his career. Williams rushed for 78 yards and averaged six yards per carry. If nothing else, he gives the Chiefs another proven option at the position.
Edge: Chiefs
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WHEN THE BILLS PASS
Josh Allen is what the Bills hoped he’d become when they selected him seventh overall in 2018. He threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns and completed 69.2% of his passes in leading Buffalo to its first AFC East title. Plus he added eight rushing touchdowns.
How did the Chiefs hold him to one of his worst games this season in their Week 6 victory? For starters, they kept him off the field. The Chiefs had the ball for nearly 38 minutes.
Stefon Diggs is an All-Pro with an NFL-leading 1,535 reception yards and sure-handed Cole Beasley always seems to pick up a first down. Thanks largely to their passing game, the Bills are averaging 34.7 points since Week 9.
Chiefs cornerback Bashaud Breeland suffered a concussion last week against the Browns.
Edge: Bills
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WHEN THE BILLS RUN
Devin Singletary is the team’s rushing leader, but Allen is Buffalo’s biggest threat. He’s not Lamar Jackson-elusive, but he’s an effective runner and his eight rushing touchdowns leads the team. Reserve running back Zach Moss is out with an injury. The Bills don’t rely on the run, and the Chiefs rank in the middle of the NFL pack in stopping opposing ground games.
Allen is the key, especially near the goal line.
Edge: Bills
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COACHING/INTANGIBLES
The Chiefs have edges in home-field and playoff experience. Winning the regular-season game also should add to their confidence. But the Bills are sizzling.
Since that loss to the Chiefs, their only setback came on a Hail Mary by the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray. And the Bills had rallied to take the lead in that game with 34 seconds remaining.
Nothing comes easily for the Chiefs. Their last eight victories have come by an average of four points. Falling behind Buffalo would be playing with fire.
Edge: Chiefs
