ANDY Burnham could make “a big difference” to levels of homelessness because increases in the number of people sleeping rough have been “significantly driven” by UK Government decisions, a leading homelessness expert has said.
Burnham used his first speech as Prime Minister to pledge to end long-term rough sleeping in England, echoing a promise he made after becoming mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, and mirroring what former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he would do if elected to No 10.
Burnham’s record has come under scrutiny because he failed to meet his original target of ending rough sleeping in the Manchester city-region by 2020.
However, Professor Beth Watts-Cobbe, the deputy director of the Institute for Social Policy, Housing, Equalities Research (I-SPHERE) at Heriot-Watt University, rejected suggestions that Burnham's failure to eradicate rough sleeping while mayor of Manchester meant his flagship policy had been unsuccessful.
She said presenting Burnham's record as a straightforward failure ignored the substantial reduction achieved during his early years in office, and the negative impact of UK Government decisions.
"Andy Burnham achieved really positive results on rough sleeping in Greater Manchester, reducing levels by 57% in three years," Watts-Cobbe told The National.
"Numbers remained down by 26% in 2025, and that compares extremely favourably to trends across England more broadly and in London.”
However, the early progress has not been fully sustained. The number of people recorded sleeping rough in Greater Manchester has subsequently begun rising again, with homelessness increasing in the area in each of the last four years.
But Watts-Cobbe said Greater Manchester had faced "significant headwinds" in recent years, including a challenging housing market that has made it difficult for people experiencing homelessness to access both the private and social rented sectors.
"Subsequent increases in rough sleeping in Greater Manchester have been significantly driven by levers outside the control of local authorities and combined authorities – by national government decisions including, crucially, on Local Housing Allowance and social security," she said.
Burnham's record in Greater Manchester has also been criticised for having seen a dramatic increase in the number of households living in temporary accommodation.
Watts-Cobbe warned against responding to rising rough sleeping simply by expanding large communal shelters.
"Dormitory style 'shared air' night shelters are incredibly unpleasant places to live," she said.
"All the evidence suggests that they are harmful and that they don't create sustainable routes off the street."
The impact on Scotland
Although housing and homelessness law are devolved, Watts-Cobbe said decisions taken by Burnham's government could still have a major impact on Scotland.
The Scottish Government's latest statistics show the numbers of people in temporary accommodation and sleeping rough are rising.
"If there's one key driver of homelessness, it's poverty, and a lot of the levers to reduce poverty continue to lie with the Westminster Government," she said.
"The Scottish Government has a huge capacity to prevent homelessness, to address it and to reduce levels, but it doesn't have its hand on all levers, so while Andy Burnham has most power over levels of rough sleeping in England, his decisions could potentially make a big difference in Scotland too."
She pointed to welfare assistance, the shape of the social security safety net and, in particular, Local Housing Allowance levels as areas where Westminster decisions could have a significant impact north of the Border.
"There is absolutely no doubt that if Andy Burnham took decisions that are about strengthening that welfare safety net, preventing people ending up homeless and making it easier to rehouse them once they've experienced it, that would make a huge difference across the whole of the UK," she added.
Watts-Cobbe said one of the most important lessons Burnham could take into Downing Street was the importance of collaboration across different sectors.
"Across the UK, a key focus needs to be on bringing different actors from across the public sector, the charitable sector, housing providers and local authorities together," she said.
"A wider range of public bodies and housing associations need to play a role in identifying people at risk and helping resolve their homelessness when it occurs."
