The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is Friday at 4 pm ET and – approximately one hour after that when all the trades have been processed – the “winners” and “losers” of the deadline will be declared and debated.
But there is only one true trade deadline winner: the team that wins the World Series, and that’s not known until late October. Contenders can go all-in this week with a huge name, make a few roster tweaks or just stand pat, content with what they have. It’s hard to know the right approach ... unless you look back at recent World Series winners to see what they did at the deadline. If you do, a clear pattern emerges.
The San Francisco Giants, the reigning World Series champions, acquired Jake Peavy last year a few days before the deadline and then stood pat. Peavy pitched well down the stretch and the Giants squeaked into the wildcard, but he got rocked in the postseason. The Giants still won it all.
The Red Sox won the World Series just two years ago. Really! Their big deadline move was ... trading for Jake Peavy, as well! He was middling down down the stretch and got knocked around in the postseason, but Boston still won a ring.
The year before that, the Giants added ... Peavy? No. Hunter Pence from the Phillies. Pence was fairly lousy in August, September and October, yet the Giants still won the World Series.
St Louis won the 2011 World Series after going all-in with acquisitions of Rafael Furcal, Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Marc Rzepczynski. Furcal was considered the gem of the haul, but he only hit .195 in the postseason. It didn’t matter. The Cardinals won the World Series.
2010 was another even year, so the Giants won again, of course. Their deadline additions were minor: two middle relievers, Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez.
In 2009 the Yankees won the World Series. They were roundly declared deadline “losers” because they only picked up Jerry Hairston, Jr, while the rival Red Sox added Victor Martinez. Hairston hit .237 for the Yankees and had only eight postseason at-bats. It didn’t matter, obviously, because the Yankees won their 27th title.
That’s five years of champions and a big enough sample size to detect a trend. And that trend is this: the eventual World Series champion will use the trade deadline to acquire a big-name that will play poorly when it matters or some bit players of almost no consequence.
So you can relax if you’re a fan of a contending team. The trade deadline isn’t as crucial as it’s made out to be. Only consider panicking if your team is declared a clear deadline winner. That’s the kiss of postseason death.
Quote of the Week
My fastball is gone. I no longer have a mullet. And my scowl is long gone - Randy Johnson, in his Hall of Fame induction speech, talking about how he has changed since his playing days.
Johnson’s speech was good, but why is he welcomed into Cooperstown when greats of his era who are clouded by PEDs get left out? Taking steroids is a victimless crime. But involuntary birdslaughter? Most definitely not victimless.
Reader Twitter Question of the Week
“How much is a Lobaton?” - @JMurray_4
The listed playing weight of Nationals backup catcher Jose Lobaton is 215lbs, so a Lobaton equals 215lbs. However, he is from Venezuela and they use the metric system there, so a Lobaton in his homeland is 97.5kg. Interestingly, baseball’s modern unit of length measurement, the Altuve, is also based off of a Venezuelan player: Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, who stands 5ft 5in, or 1.65 meters.
In a week in which the intelligence of Latin baseball players was questioned, maybe it’s best to start any conversation about whether baseball is a sport for dumb people with the fact that the country that invented the sport still uses an outdated and illogical system of measurement.
Join the modern world, America. Adopt the Altuve-Lobaton System of International Measurement.
Stat of the Week
45.2 – Zach Greinke’s scoreless streak ended Sunday at 45 2/3 innings when Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom plated a run against him by grounding into a fielder’s choice. Let’s hope this silences anyone who still wants to keep the DH out of the National League. How are we ever going to see history if these aces have to face slugging pitchers every time through the lineup?
This Week’s Horrible Fantasy Team That Crushed Your Team
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Phillies - 6-for-11, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Chris Coghlan, OF, Cubs - 9-for-23, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB
Josh Phegley, C, A’s - 5-for-14, HR, 5 RBI
Jake Smolinksi, OF, A’s - 6-for-17, 2 HR, 6 RBI
Rubby De La Rosa, P, Diamondbacks - 15 innings, 2 wins, 7 strikeouts, 0.60 ERA
Ian Kennedy, P, Padres - 12 innings, 2 wins, 13 strikeouts, 2.25 ERA
Phillies-ness of the Week
There is no Phillies-ness to report this week. Philadelphia are 8-1 since the break, tied with the world champion Giants for the best record in all of baseball in the second half. If the Phillies keep up this .888 winning percentage through the end of the season, they’ll finish with 92 wins and likely find themselves in the playoffs. Don’t trade Cole Hamels, Phillies. Don’t give up on what could be the greatest turnaround in sports history. Don’t give up on the best team in baseball.
Chicago Cubs World Series Odds: Declining
The Cubs took a major step back towards normality in getting swept at home by Philadelphia, the hands-down worst team in baseball – including getting no-hit on Saturday. The humiliation served as a reminder that the Cubs are used to failure - and to putting a positive spin on that failure. Behold their tweet announcing their hitless performance against Hamels:
Dexter Fowler walks twice in loss to #Phillies. Recap: http://t.co/15IiR4QNHb pic.twitter.com/hF6LGxaKJR
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 25, 2015
This is how a franchise copes with more than a century of losing. It’s too bad there are no trophies for having the most half-full glass.
A-Rod-ness of the Week
Alex Rodriguez hit three home runs Saturday night to lead his first-place team to another win and today it’s his 40th birthday. If you forgot to get a birthday gift for baseball’s biggest star, don’t sweat it. You can still get him the greatest gift of all. And it just happens to be free. FORG1V3.
10 Things to Think If You Think to Think
1) Mike Trout is leading the majors in home runs now with 31. He’s homering on average once every 11.5 at-bats, well ahead of his career-best rate of 16.7 from a year ago. Trout is only 23 and still getting better. It’s staggering to think of the numbers he could be putting up in three or four years. It’s also staggering to think of the numbers he could’ve put up had he been born 20 years earlier. Imagine a Mike Trout coming off age in the steroids era. Would he average 70 home runs a year? Would he ever make a run at 100 in a season? Let’s just all agree to let Trout use steroids for one year just to see what happens. For science.
2) Oakland A’s rookie outfielder Billy Burns left his team’s game Friday night with “testicular contusion” after fouling a ball off his crotch. a) That is horrible. b) This is yet another reason to consider bringing steroids back into baseball. In the PEDs heyday, baseball testicles were so small it was rare for anything to make direct contact with them.
3) Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz caught Cole Hamels’ no-hitter on Saturday. It was the fourth no-hitter he has caught in his career, tying him with Jason Varitek for the most all-time. This is a peculiar feat. Ruiz obviously deserves some credit for calling the games, but no-hitters are primarily a pitcher accomplishment. If a pitcher is having a dominant game, he can throw to a beanbag chair and still get people out. It’s a pitcher thing. Your friends don’t text you to turn on the TV because a catcher is three outs from a no-hitter. The catcher’s role is far secondary. Abraham Lincoln is on Mount Rushmore, not his vice president, Hannibal Hamlin. What is my point? I don’t know. I guess it’s that Carlos Ruiz is a pretty good catcher and that maybe North Dakota should build a Mount Rushmore of vice presidents to compete with South Dakota’s fancy president one.
4) Due to Cole Hamels’ no-hitter, you can get a free Domino’s pizza as part of the chain’s “DomiNoNo” promotion. Domino’s Pizza is the absolute perfect corporate partner for baseball no-hitters. When a pitcher has a no-hitter going, what are you not supposed to do? Talk to him about it. And when you’re reduced to eating Domino’s Pizza, what’s the last thing you want to do? Talk to anyone about it. Perfect.
5) Johnny Cueto looks a lot different in a Royals hat.
#Royals officially acquire RHP Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds! #ForeverRoyal pic.twitter.com/BCFqbfpRKx
— Royals (@Royals) July 26, 2015
6) Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus tossed his glove at a line drive single that Kole Calhoun hit some 15-feet over his head Saturday night. It looked harmless and funny, as you can see here, but Angels manager Mike Scioscia immediately complained to an umpire and Rangers manager Jeff Banister scowled and said after the game that Andrus’ glove-tossing will not happen again. Serious stuff, apparently! In fact, had the thrown glove contacted the ball, it would have resulted in an automatic three-base “error” under official baseball rules. But rules can be changed. I’m not saying baseball should make a fundamental tweak to gameplay and begin allowing fielders to throw their glove at balls in an attempt to knock hits out of the air. I’m just saying that I’d watch a lot of baseball games in which fielders were allowed to throw their glove at balls in an attempt to knock hits out of the air.
7) Astros legend Craig Biggio got inducted into the Hall of Fame over the weekend. His former team-mate, Jeff Bagwell, was a superior player but got snubbed. Let’s take a look at how the retired slugger is coping:
Astros legend Jeff Bagwell with the low key scheme. https://t.co/TN2jnOwIq7
— Weekend Schemers (@WeekendSchemers) July 23, 2015
Interesting. The baseball Hall of Fame puts its inductees on plaques, but it seems Bagwell is more interested in getting a bust.
8) John Smoltz cautioned parents in his Hall of Fame speech to give their children breaks from baseball so they don’t get injured. “Baseball is not a year-round sport,” he said. “You have an opportunity to be athletic and play other sports.” Well, great news, Mr Smoltz! Fewer children are playing baseball every year! That’s ... uh ... good news, right?
9) Mets pitcher Jon Niese was informed during the second inning of his start on Friday against the Dodgers that his wife was going into labor. He then went back out to the mound, gave up two home runs and was pulled after yielding six runs in three innings. Niese was supposed to face Zach Greinke in that game, but Greinke’s start was pushed back to Sunday so he could witness the birth of his first child. Pitching for the first time as a father yesterday, Greinke saw his scoreless streak end. Not having children is the new market inefficiency.
10) PSA: Remember to be mindful of fake Twitter accounts in the lead up to the trade deadline. Every year some fake account dupes everyone with a made up deal. Only pay attention to verified baseball experts. The rumors and anonymously sourced reports they spread about are 100% accurate.
