Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly urged Western leaders to impose a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine, but establishing one appears unlikely any time soon.
Why it matters: Imposing a no-fly zone (NFZ) would mark a significant escalation in the war — potentially bringing NATO, which Ukraine is not a member of, directly into a conventional conflict with a nuclear power.
- The U.S. and other major powers have so far ruled out establishing a NFZ over Ukraine.
No-fly zones explained
- A no-fly zone is airspace where certain aircraft are not allowed to enter.
- In the context of conflicts and wars, it is typically used to stop banned aircraft from entering airspace to launch attacks, transport troops and weapons, and conduct surveillance.
- No-fly zones must be enforced militarily, which can include shooting down banned aircraft.
What Ukraine wants
- Zelensky told Axios this week that Ukraine wants a no-fly zone over "significant parts" of the country.
- "If the West does this, Ukraine will defeat the aggressor with much less blood," said Zelensky, who remains in Ukraine under siege from Vladimir Putin.
- The Ukrainian president has repeated that appeal several times, and on Thursday said if the U.S. and NATO will not establish a "no-fly" zone, they should provide warplanes so Ukraine can defend itself.
Why the West is unlikely to act
- If Western countries, specifically NATO, impose a no-fly zone, they would be responsible for enforcing it, which could mean bringing down banned Russian military planes.
- "If NATO imposes it, and we shoot down even one Russian plane, we're at war with Russia," says Howard Stoffer, a professor at the University of New Haven. That would be a major escalation and is not something NATO wants to do at this point, Stoffer tells Axios.
- Unlike past conflicts in which NFZs have been enforced, Russia has a robust and highly sophisticated military and is a nuclear power.
There are also major logistical hurdles, says Stoffer, who served in the State Department for more than two decades.
- Not only would NATO need to decide which countries would be responsible for it, the alliance would also have to set up a "very complicated" defense system for monitoring and enforcing it.
What the West says
- President Biden and the White House have repeatedly said the U.S. will not send American troops to fight Russia in Ukraine, including to enforce a NFZ.
- "It would require, essentially, the U.S. military shooting down Russian planes and causing ... a potential direct war with Russia — something we want to avoid," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday.
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has also ruled out NFZs, saying on Friday: "We understand the desperation but we also believe that if we did that (impose a no-fly zone) we would end up with something that could lead to a full-fledged war in Europe involving [many] more countries and much more suffering."
- “We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine,” he added.
Where NFZs have been used
- Libya: The UN Security Council authorized a no-fly zone, enforced by NATO, over Libya in 2011 to "protect civilians under threat of attack in the country."
- Bosnia: NATO enforced a no-fly zone over Bosnia from April 1993 to December 1995.
- Iraq: The U.S. and coalition countries imposed two no-fly zones in Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War.
- Yes, but: The militaries of the U.S. and other countries enforcing the NFZs were vastly superior to those they faced in these cases.
The bottom line
- Imposing a no fly zone is "a premature idea right now," says Stoffer.
- "We are not in a position where we want to get engaged in conventional conflict with the Russians because that could rapidly escalate to a tactical nuclear level and a strategic nuclear level," he adds. "Then we're dealing with the end of history as we know it."
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