There are players on every team who are basically irreplaceable — or, at least that’s the case if you have some serious talent on your roster. If you have no irreplaceable players, that’s a separate issue. For the Dallas Cowboys, left tackle Tyron Smith is one of those players. Selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft out of USC, the eight-time Pro Bowler, two-time All-Pro, and member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s All-2010s team is on a path to Canton, and at age 31, he came into the 2022 season as Touchdown Wire’s fourth-ranked offensive tackle, and the 60th-best player overall.
The Cowboys were hoping that after a 2021 season in which he lost six games to ankle and back injuries, as well as time in the COVID protocol, Smith would be back at full strength. That hope was dashed on Wednesday, when Smith suffered a serious injury in practice, and is estimated to be out for multiple months of the 2022 season.
How serious? Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network has the details.
#Cowboys standout LT Tyron Smith actually suffered an avulsion fracture of the knee, meaning the hamstring tendon that sits at the back of the knee pulled off the bone and he needs surgery, sources say. If he’s back at all, it’ll be December. A tough loss.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 25, 2022
It’s a massive blow to Smith and to the Cowboys’ offense, because the stats and tape tell you that Smith is one of those players without whom your football team just isn’t as good. The Cowboys will replace Smith with somebody on the left side of their offensive line, whether that’s rookie first-round pick Tyler Smith or somebody else, but nobody on the roster, nor anybody they could pick up at this point in free agency, will have Smith’s impact on that offense.
How do we know this? Because in 2021, when Tyron Smith wasn’t on the field, Dallas’ offense was worse in every capacity, and far worse in some.
Winning in pass-protection
One thing defenses learned in 2021 was that blitzing Dak Prescott was an invitation to disaster. Against six or more pass-rushers last season, Prescott completed 25 of 40 passes for 211 yards, 91 air yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception. Matthew Stafford ranked second with 10 touchdowns against such blitzes. Prescott’s dominance was even more pronounced against five or more pass rushers; he threw 24 touchdown passes to four interceptions, and Stafford ranked second with 17.
Now, when Smith was on the field for those blitzes, Prescott was far more inclined to take chances. Against the blitz, Prescott averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, compared to 5.4 when Smith was not on the field. Dallas’ yards per dropback dropped from 7.2 to 4.2 when Smith was out, and Prescott’s average depth of target dropped from 9.3 to 7.8. Dallas’ passing touchdown rate dropped from 13.8% to 13.1%, and the interception rate actually increased when Smith was on the field — from 1.6% to 2.6%.
What does this tell you? With Smith protecting his blind side, Prescott was far more confident turning it loose.
Here, against the Panthers in Week 4, Smith (No. 77) handles the end tackle stunt with Haason Reddick (No. 43) and Bravvion Roy (No. 93) perfectly, stoning Roy at the line of scrimmage and helping Prescott with the time he needed to hit Amari Cooper for a 35-yard touchdown pass.
Here’s another 35-yard completion against the blitz the next week against the Giants. Here, Smith has Lorenzo Carter (No. 59) as his responsibility, and he just buries the poor guy. Prescott is therefore perfectly happy to make a gorgeous cross-body boundary throw to Cedrick Wilson Jr..
And on this 28-yard Prescott pass to Cooper from Dallas’ own two-yard line against the Buccaneers in the 2021 season opener, Smith has to re-set to deal with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (No. 9) blitzing from off-ball (a Todd Bowles special) as Jason Pierre-Paul (No. 90) kicks inside. It’s an empty formation, so any leakage would be deadly. And as usual, it’s no problem for Smith. Prescott has the time and vision to make the throw to get the Cowboys out of trouble.
Without Smith on the field, especially against the blitz, Dallas’ passing game might be more efficient in a conservative sense, but the explosive plays will be far harder to string together on a consistent basis. As the modern NFL is all about creating and preventing explosive plays… that’s a serious problem.
Dominating in the run game.
The Cowboys’ run stats with and without Smith are more stark, as ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky points out. We’ve already seen how Smith helps out on play-action passes on that deep throw against the Giants.
Cowboys rushing left since 2019:
Smith on field (5.4 Yds per rush)
Smith off field (4.3)
Accounts for a full yard per play in the run game by himself.
Dak play action since 2019:
Smith on field (78.0 QBR)
Smith off field (47.2)
Massive difference.
👊🏻@PaulHembo— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) August 25, 2022
Last season, Dallas averaged 5.0 yards per carry when Smith was on the field, and 4.0 when he wasn’t. Back to the Panthers game, and we have Ezekiel Elliott heading upfield for 19 yards. Elliott’s case was helped by Smith sealing the edge inside, and making linebacker Shaq Thompson (No. 7) disappear at the second level of the defense.
And on this 21-yard Elliott run against the Patriots in Week 6, Smith simply decides that end Deatrich Wise Jr. (No. 91) isn’t getting anywhere near his running back.
The Cowboys are in trouble.
The Cowboys lost right tackle La’el Collins in free agency, and while Tyler Smith does have potential, Dallas has been working him at left guard, assuming that Tyron Smith would be healthy, and the rookie could take time to develop. That plan is obviously out the window — at least, to start the season, and for however many months Smith is out.
The Cowboys still have estimable talent on their roster — the defense ranked second in DVOA, and even without Collins, Cooper, and Wilson (who also left the cap-strapped Cowboys in free agency), the offense should be decent as long as Prescott is on the field.
But how far will decent get them? We’ll have to see, but there is no version of the Dallas Cowboys’ offense that is better without Tyron Smith, and that’s the reality that head coach Mike McCarthy and his staff are facing right now.
