The south London Labour canvasser I heard last night complaining that his local seat was "so safe it's boring" might divert himself with a weekend break in Northern Ireland. With the Stormont assembly suspended indefinitely and the IRA's fictional spokesman, P O'Neill, still obstinately silent on the subject of disarmament, the Westminster elections could prove very interesting. (So interesting, in fact, that the Northern Irish blog Slugger O'Toole has already raised £1,120 from readers to fund it during the campaign.)
According to a March poll by Millward Brown Ulster - taken after Robert McCartney's murder by the IRA - there has been a 3% swing away from Sinn Féin since the last assembly elections in 2003. But the real loser has been David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, which has been pilloried by Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists for failing to stand up to Sinn Féin and the IRA. That means the Rev Paisley's party is very likely to overturn the UUP to become the biggest political force in Northern Ireland. (You can see the 2001 results here.)
The UUP is trying hard to shore up its middle-class vote. "Decent people vote Ulster Unionist" says one of the party's posters. "We are the mainstream unionist party," counters the DUP, which thinks it can unseat Mr Trimble in the constituency of Upper Bann. Whatever the fate of the UUP leader, Mr Paisley seems likely to emerge triumphant on May 6.
