With results falling out of their favor on Sunday, the Pelicans officially were eliminated from the playoffs with two games remaining. On Monday, New Orleans decision to rest Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson seemed to initially indicate a mindset change as the Pelicans look to tank the final two games.
However, tanking is not an option for the Pelicans in the final two games of the season and something the NBA specifically addressed with their rules before play in the bubble started.
The draft lottery standings are largely set in stone already. First, the top eight teams in the lottery standings will go to the eight teams that did not travel to the bubble. That order is pictured as such, via Tankathon.
After the top eight, the remaining six spots in the bubble will be filled by teams that don’t make the playoffs inside the bubble. However, each of those teams’ records were frozen prior to play inside the bubble to discourage any sort of tanking.
Had that not been the case, the Pelicans would be well within reach of a top-ten pick after a 2-4 record through the opening six games. Instead, by using the Pelicans’ pre-bubble record, they figure to be on the back end of the lottery.
Currently, here’s a look at the backend of the NBA Draft lottery.
Essentially, the only way for the Pelicans to move up in the draft is if a team with a worse record than them makes the playoffs. The only two teams that applies for would be the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs. At best, if one of those two teams earn the eighth seed via a play-in tournament, the Pelicans would move up to the 12th spot in the lottery.
The difference in percentages is minimal between the 12th and 13th slots. At the 13th slot, the Pelicans would have a 1.2% chance of the number one pick and a 5.7% chance of a top-four pick. If they were to move up to the 12th slot, New Orleans would have a 1.3% chance at the top pick and a 6.2% of moving up into the top four.
Ultimately, it’s only a small improvement in odds but as the Pelicans witnessed first-hand last season, the new lottery format lends itself to much crazier results. The top four of the 2019 NBA Draft were teams with the seventh-, eighth-, third- and 11th-best lottery odds.
What this means for the Pelicans is that fans should be rooting for either the Suns or the Spurs to make the playoffs over the final week of the season. Both teams sit a half-game behind the Trail Blazers for the ninth seed after the Suns win over Oklahoma City on Monday and the Spurs win over New Orleans on Sunday.
