Last week, the Patriots defeated the Raiders 36-20 to improve their record to 2-1 on the year. The game was sloppy at times, and New England benefitted from multiple turnovers that led to scores.
This week, however, won’t be the same. The Kansas City Chiefs are a different animal. They are coming off of a 34-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football; a two-score win over a consensus top-three team in the AFC.
New England won’t be able to make the mental mistakes that they made against the Raiders because the Chiefs will capitalize. They are the more talented team and everybody knows it, even the oddsmakers. Since Super Bowl 36, the Patriots have been the underdogs by at least seven points only twice. This marks the third time.
It’s not a sure thing that this game gets played with COVID-19 having a massive effect on games this week, but let’s say it does happen.
These are the reasons the Patriots should be concerned going into their Week 4 matchup with the Chiefs.
Cam Newton is inactive after testing positive for COVID-19.
News broke Saturday morning that the Patriots quarterback tested positive and would be held out of this week’s matchup. Newton has been the heart and soul of the team’s offense this year, as he’s thrown or ran for six of their nine offensive touchdowns this season.
In his place will be either Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham. Hoyer has been active all three weeks while Stidham has yet to suit up, so it seems likely that Hoyer will get the call. While he knows the offense and is a smart player, he just doesn’t have the dynamic talent that a guy like Newton possesses. The offense that we’ve seen the offense in Week 4 won’t resemble anything they’ve shown in the first three weeks.
Patrick Mahomes
Does more even need to be said? The Patriots, including head coach Bill Belichick, spent the whole week uttering practically the same sentiment. The quarterback is nothing short of exceptional. This year, Mahomes is on pace to nearly replicate his MVP-winning season in 2018. Through three games, he’s thrown for 898 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 114.3.
Everything Mahomes does is incredible. If a team throws zone at him, he picks it apart. If they run man, his weapons are talented enough to get open, and if they don’t, he can run for the first down. Blitzing doesn’t work either because he’s able to get the ball out so fast. There’s nothing a team can do to stop him. They can only hope to limit him.
They added the one piece they were missing on offense in the draft.
Kansas City had an average running game last season with LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams sharing snaps before Williams took over the role in the postseason. This offseason they made it a priority to find a three-down back who can make their offense even more dynamic.
Enter Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The Chiefs took the LSU running back with the 32nd pick in this year’s draft after his Tigers won the National Championship. In his final college season, Edwards-Helaire totaled 1,867 yards on offense with 17 touchdowns.
Through three games this season, he’s recorded 342 total yards with one touchdown. The Patriots have struggled to slow down the run game this season, and they are even worse at covering them out of the backfield. Edwards-Helaire can be a game-changer for the Chiefs this week.
The Patriots’ offensive line is banged up.
Last week, New England was without David Andrews who was placed on injured reserve after suffering a broken thumb. Left guard Joe Thuney flipped from his normal position to center while rookie Michael Onwenu was thrust into a starting spot. The transition looked easy for both, as Onwenu graded as PFF’s top guard last Sunday.
This week has seen more offensive linemen finding their way onto the injury report. Both left tackle Isaiah Wynn and right guard Shaq Mason were limited in practice this week due to calf injuries. Kansas City’s pass rushers are impressive with both Frank Clark and Chris Jones attacking the quarterback. If Wynn or Mason were to go down, the Patriots’ depth would certainly be tested, and it doesn’t seem like a test that they’ll pass.
Kansas City’s pass defense is better than you think.
The Chiefs’ defense isn’t the first thing that’s thought of when Kansas City is brought up, and that’s understandable when you look on the other side of the ball. However, the group has still been really good early in 2020. The unit is only allowing 202.7 passing yards per game which is good for sixth-fewest in the league.
Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill in the backend can take care of the Patriots’ tight ends with ease. They’re also able to provide some extra pass rush if defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deems it necessary. While they’ll be missing cornerback L’Jarius Sneed due to injury, their other corners such as Rashad Fenton and Charvarius Ward are capable of limiting the production of the Patriots’ weapons.
