The Warringah motion, named for Tony Abbott’s electorate, has won with a strong majority.
In theory, it will deliver a vote for all New South Wales Liberal party members in their local candidate preselections and office bearers.
But not so fast. It is not a binding decision. First it must go to the party’s constitutional committee and then to the state executive and the state council for ratification.
For those seeking to change the system, the difficult part is yet to come.
That is because this is a motion conceived by conservatives and opposed by moderates who currently control the NSW party.
It would be easy to see the success of the Warringah motion through a leadership prism. Conservatives won, the moderates and the centre right lost. Conservatives generally support Abbott. Moderates support Malcolm Turnbull. Ipso facto, leadership battle.
But that would be to ignore the complex history thus far and the challenges the party faces in the future.
Conservatives such as the former member John Ruddick and Abbott’s federal electorate conference president, Walter Villatora, have been pushing for ordinary member plebiscites since well before Turnbull’s leadership.
They began in 2011, before this Coalition came to office federally, as a push against the moderate-controlled state division. In the existing system, branches vote for local delegates, who then combine with central delegates to pick MPs. The moderates’ iron-fisted control of the party office bearers made it hard for conservatives.
Obviously, the “democratisation” campaign could rightly conclude that more conservatives will win if the change is made because the Liberal party membership tends to be more conservative than its MPs – just as the Labor party membership is left of its MPs.
But if you think it is all about leadership, Abbott’s role has been patchy.
As prime minister, in 2013 Abbott commissioned John Howard to do a review of the party processes as other state parties moved towards plebiscites. Howard recommended the change in 2014 and Abbott did nothing about plebiscites in office. He has since taken up the cause since leaving the PM’s suite.
Though a moderate, Turnbull has supported more open preselections though he has been careful not to nominate a preference. While he gave a speech supporting a say for members “at every stage” on Saturday, he was not in the room when the motions were voted on on Sunday.
Opponents of the Warringah motion believe it will lead to branch-stacking. No doubt it could well see challenges and stacks against existing MPs if it manages to survive the rocky road into the party’s constitution.
In the meantime, opponents will work to water down the motion to ensure the hard edges are taken off it.
But the key advantage for the campaigners for change is the times, in which so many people are disillusioned with state of politics and direct engagement between politicians and their voters is the new black. Witness UK Labour’s Momentum campaign, which mobilised the youth vote to push Jeremy Corbyn further than anybody ever dreamed.
All parties are now struggling to find ways to re-engage with their base. Parties who want to reinvigorate voters need to be more responsive notwithstanding the fact that opening up could cause a stack.
The assistant cities minister, Angus Taylor, is one of the few senior MPs who has spoken out against the existing rules. He has alleged people are regularly stopped from joining branches in order for powerbrokers to maintain control and that people are regularly stopped from establishing branches for the same reason and, as a result, the party is in danger of losing future elections.
Speaking in favour of change, Taylor, told the meeting: “I want one faction. The Liberal party faction. I want thousands of new members. And, if that is a stack, then bring it on.”
Politics has always been a numbers game. For opponents, stopping people joining political parties for any reason is a hard debate to win.
