Before the 2023 season began, the New York Giants signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract extension with $82 million guaranteed. This happened while backup Tyrod Taylor was entering the second year of his two-year, $11 million contract signed in 2022, with $8.2 million.
As the 2023 season began, there were few negative thoughts about the Jones transaction. But in Jones’ second year in Brian Daboll’s offense, he’s regressed pretty significantly — this season, he ranks dead last among all quarterbacks in DYAR (-483), and only Las Vegas Raiders fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell has a lower DVOA (-54.8%) than Jones’ 54.4%. Jones has missed the Giants’ last two games with a neck injury, and Taylor, the veteran journeyman who’s currently with his fifth NFL team since the Baltimore Ravens selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft, has been the starter.
With that, we now have enough of a sample size to make a somewhat definitive statement:
The Giants’ passing game is just better with Tyrod Taylor than it is with Daniel Jones. Let’s start with the metrics.
Taylor ranks 15th in DYAR among quarterbacks (129), and ninth in DVOA (12.9%). He’s ahead of Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford in DVOA.
The head-to-head comparisons between Taylor and Jones are pretty definitive in Taylor’s favor no matter how you chop them up.
On throws of 0-9 air yards:
Jones — 65 of 82 for 482 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, two turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 74.9.
Taylor — 32 of 42 for 302 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, no turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 103.5.
On throws of 10-19 air yards:
Jones — 12 of 24 for 225 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 62.0.
Taylor — 5 of 8 for 77 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, no turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 133.9.
On throws of 20+ air yards:
Jones — 2 of 9 for 89 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, no turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 68.3.
Taylor — 5 of 10 for 160 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, no turnover-worthy throws, and a passer rating of 95.8.
Right now, there’s no absolute statement from the team regarding Jones’ status for Sunday’s game against the New York Jets and their impressive defense, but based on the metrics and the tape, were I Brian Daboll, I might start Taylor regardless of Jones’ health. Because there’s no question whatsoever that he’s been the better quarterback than the guy with 10 times his guaranteed money.
Let’s go to the tape and dive into why Taylor has been so impressive — and why the Giants have an interesting quarterback story all of a sudden.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, FTN, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).
Creating explosive completions with tight-window throws.
Here’s another head-to-head that does not bend in Jones’ favor at all — he’s got 10 explosive plays this season on 151 dropbacks, while Taylor has nine explosive plays on 78 dropbacks. The radical variance shown above on deep air yard throws is evident when you watch the tape. Taylor is able at this point in his career to make tight-window throws downfield even and especially when things aren’t set up perfectly for him, and Jones really isn’t.
Through his two starts this season against the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Commanders, Taylor has especially shown a real knack for deep fade and boundary throws into tight windows where his targets can catch the ball, and the opponents can’t. This slot fade to Darius Slayton against the Bills in Week 6 saw cornerback Christian Benford following all the way through in Cover-1, but Taylor’s valocity and placement won the day.
And on this 42-yard completion to Jalin Hyatt against the Commanders last Sunday, Hyatt beat cornerback Benjamin St-Juste with a nasty stutter near the start of his route, and Taylor amplified Hyatt’s efforts with an outstanding throw.
Throwing under pressure and on the move.
Scramble rules between receivers and quarterbacks generally take a while to develop, but Taylor seems to have an excellent rapport with his targets when things fall apart. On this 13-yard completion to tight end Darren Waller against the Commanders, Taylor was flushed from the pocket to his left, and maintained his mechanics on the move as Waller ran an intermediate pivot route to stay in phase with his quarterback.
Taylor also had one of his more impressive throws of the season under pressure against the Commanders. Hyatt and Slayton ran vertical routes to either side of the formation, and Waller ran an over route out of motion. This was on first-and-10 with the Giants up 14-0, so Taylor could have taken the easy throw to tight end Daniel Bellinger. But he didn’t — instead, he stepped aside in the pocket and made the throw to Waller with timing, anticipation, and accuracy.
If you want another area in which Taylor has far outperformed Jones this season, throwing under pressure is one — and that’s obviously important when you’re playing behind an offensive line as porous as the Giants’ has been all season.
Jones has completed 26 of 49 passes under pressure for 185 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 36.5 — third-worst in the NFL.
Taylor has completed 16 of 27 passes under pressure for 188 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.5 — seventh-best in the NFL.
And the hits just keep coming.
The Giants have a sunk-cost issue to consider.
To date, Daboll has been noncommittal — at least publicly — about his future quarterback plans.
“As you go through the week, it’s important to know who your guy is going to be at really any position,” he said on Monday. “You have strategy and backup plans if that’s not the case. Certainly, it’s an important position. Each week we go into it, it’s ideal when you know who your quarterback is versus who it’s not.”
It would not be hard for Daboll, or for offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, or for anybody else on the Giants’ staff to know who their better quarterback is at this point. Taylor might not be the team’s long-term answer at the position, and the Giants clearly thought enough of Jones’ potential after the 2022 season to invest in him at a franchise quarterback level.
But there are instances in which the guy you barely paid outplays the guy you gave all the money in the world, and teams have to adapt to that reality. The San Francisco 49ers gave Jimmy Garoppolo that kind of contract years ago, and they traded massive draft capital to move up to select Trey Lance in 2021. Both moves were ultimately mistakes, but the 49ers were improbably bailed out by the efforts of Brock Purdy, famously the last player selected in the 2022 draft.
Neither Garoppolo nor Lance are currently with the 49ers, and while we’re not saying that the Giants should jettison Daniel Jones in a similar fashion, it’s also clear that it would be a mistake to relegate Tyrod Taylor to the bench when Jones is healthy.
Sunk cost or not, you go with your best guy at the game’s most important position.
