If the NFL playoffs began today, your seventh seed in the NFC would be?
The Atlanta Falcons.
With their win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday the Falcons improved to 4-4 as the season hit its midway point. Whether they end up in the post-season or not remains to be seen, but after getting wins against teams like the Giants, the Jets and the Dolphins, a statement victory over the Saints on the road has people taking notice, and wondering what to make of the Falcons.
Today, we are going to discuss their offense.
At first blush, making the case that people should buy in on the Falcons offense seems like an uphill battle.
After all, we are talking about an offense that, statistically speaking, might be middle of the pack at best. Football Outsiders’ DVOA does the Falcons offensive unit no favors, as Atlanta’s offense checks in with a Total DVOA that ranks 25th in the league, a Weighted DVOA that ranks 25th, a Passing DVOA that ranks 20th and a Rushing DVOA that checks in dead-last in the league.
This is a rushing attack that ranks 29th in the league in Yards per Game, averaging just 80.4 rushing yards this season. The Falcons also average just 3.4 Yards per Attempt, clocking in 31st overall.
Thankfully, this is a passing league, which helps buoy their overall numbers. Matt Ryan has posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.64, which places him 18th overall in the league. Again, in the middle of the pack when compared to the rest of the NFL.
Perhaps the best way to think about their offense is through the realm of Expected Points Added. Here is how the Falcons stack up against the rest of the league, courtesy of RBSDM.com:
That is a nice visual of how the rushing attack is working as an anchor on the offense, but the passing attack is still just above league average.
And yet…
When you watch the Falcons each week, you see some elements that can certainly get an offense rolling. So while the numbers might not help the case, you can point to the offense and make the argument that this unit is starting to put things together.
It starts with matchups.
