SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Here's what we know. The 49ers are making a monumental trade with the Miami Dolphins, sending four picks to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in next month's NFL draft, a league source confirmed to The Sacramento Bee.
Presumably, the 49ers plan to take a quarterback for the future while multiple reports have indicated the team plans to keep Jimmy Garoppolo for one more season to groom that prospect.
It's a move that could change the direction of the franchise and define Kyle Shanahan's tenure as coach. If the move is for a quarterback, which is widely expected, Shanahan, the offensive mastermind, will be tied to that player for the foreseeable future. And, since San Francisco considers itself a Super Bowl contender, the 49ers might not pick high enough to land a star quarterback again with Shanahan as head coach.
What's less clear is the immediate future. The 49ers have indicated all along they believe they can win with Garoppolo, and initial reports indicate the team is planning to keep Garoppolo through the 2021 season.
"Jimmy is here to say. He is our guy this year," a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Friday, which jibes with multiple reports indicating the 49ers do not immediately plan to trade Garoppolo.
Following the Mahomes model
The logic there is following the path set by the Kansas City Chiefs when they traded up to take Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They had Alex Smith as their starter which allowed Mahomes to transition to the NFL after playing in a spread system without the same level of structure at Texas Tech. He started one game, the season finale, as a rookie before Smith was traded to Washington the following offseason allowing Mahomes to become the starter in 2018.
Shanahan mentioned that exact scenario during a Zoom call with local reporters in December when asked about Garoppolo's injury history and the team's need to improve the quarterback depth chart behind Garoppolo. After all, the 49ers went 4-12 and 6-10 in 2018 and 2020, respectively, when Garoppolo was lost for the majority of those seasons with knee and ankle injuries and Shanahan had clearly had enough.
"Do you want to go get a starter as a backup quarterback? Then you've just got to decide if you want to spend the majority of your salary cap on your first- and your second-string quarterbacks," Shanahan said. "So, that's something that most teams do have an issue with, that second-team quarterback, unless they've drafted a guy and then had their starter from the year before. Someone like Alex and what they had with Patrick. So, it's a very common thing. You just hope you don't lose your guy for a whole year."
With a rookie quarterback, the 49ers would have both a high-level backup for Garoppolo and a player they could groom to be his replacement.
That said, Shanahan likely won't scoff at the idea of trading Garoppolo for the right price. However, no rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, and it might be exceedingly difficult for the 49ers to integrate a new starter without a traditional offseason program because of the pandemic.
Players are pushing for another offseason with no conditioning program or OTAs, meaning players wouldn't hit the practice field until August.
San Francisco considers itself a Super Bowl contender now, which means keeping Garoppolo as the starter for 2021 would make sense. Additionally, Garoppolo has a no-trade clause for 2021 only, though he would likely waive it in order to keep his $24.1 million salary on the books. If released, Garoppolo would have to sign a new contract, which might not earn as much.
Since Garoppolo signed his five-year, $137.5 million contract in Feb. 2018, he tore his ACL, helped the 49ers get to the Super Bowl and then had 2020 derailed by injuries.
"That's Jimmy's body of work," Shanahan said. "We know he's played well. Yes, we have to be able to improve our team and stuff if he does get hurt."
Throughout it all Shanahan had indicated faith in Garoppolo's ability to win when available. But losing two of three seasons because of Garoppolo's injuries likely pushed Shanahan to trade two future first-round picks, plus a 2022 third-round pick, to hand pick Garoppolo's successor, presumably one that will be more durable.
Who will the 49ers draft?
Which quarterback will they pick at No. 3?
They will be able to choose one of the top five prospects who could all end up going in the top 10. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) is expected to go first to the Jaguars, while Zach Wilson (BYU) is a favorite to go second. That would leave Justin Fields (Ohio State), Trey Lance (North Dakota State) and Mac Jones (Alabama) as the available targets.
San Francisco likely has a good idea of who will go second overall to the Jets, who hired 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh as head coach. He brought over one of Shanahan's top assistants, Mike LaFleur, to serve as offensive coordinator.
But crazy things can happen in the draft and things can change before the first pick is made. Wilson's name has been a hot topic among draft prognosticators, with some believing he's the best quarterback available. Wilson tossed 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions during his junior season in 2020, his only standout campaign as the starter.
Additionally, Lawrence recently had surgery on his left, non-throwing shoulder that prevented him from working out at Clemson's pro day. Lawrence has been expected to go first overall since he stepped on Clemson's campus.
Fields has been considered an elite prospect for years, dating back to his time at Georgia before he went to Ohio State. His run in the recent College Football Playoff, which included thumping Clemson 49-28 while completing 22 of 28 for 385 yards and six touchdown passes, cemented his status as a top-10 selection.
Then there are the more enigmatic prospects, Lance and Jones. Lance only started for one season and didn't play elite competition at North Dakota State. But his athleticism and skill set make him intriguing. Though he would likely need a season to acclimate to the NFL, which might make him appealing to San Francisco.
Jones doesn't have standout physical tools, but he's considered a very promising prospect, given his fundamentals, work ethic, processing and pedigree. But he lacks the elite arm and mobility of other quarterbacks in the class.
One thing is certain now that San Francisco has the No. 3 pick: at worst, they will have their pick of three of these prospects to eventually become the new face of the franchise.
