North Texas could get a new congressional seat this redistricting cycle, a fight that is likely to be in the state's increasingly diverse suburbs that were once Republican strongholds.
"Redistricting in Texas has always been a bit of a bloodsport and this decade will be no different," said Michael Li, senior counsel in the democracy program at NYU Law's Brennan Center for Justice.
It could be worse than years past, Li said, because the U.S. Supreme Court has removed key protections of the Voting Rights Act and "green-lighted partisan gerrymandering" as Texas diversifies.
Thursday's release of 2020 census results means state legislators can begin the crafting of congressional and legislative districts, a process known as redistricting. Lawmakers are expected to take up the decennial task in a special session, when they'll decide where to put two new congressional seats.
A likely candidate for one of them is Dallas-Fort Worth, where suburban Collin and Denton counties are among the state's fastest growing.
"It would be logical to create additional representation in those areas because all of those districts right now are over populated," Li said. "But the way redistricting works is, it's not always that you put a new district where the population has grown."
North Texas population grows
Texas saw rapid growth from 2010 to 2020 — ranking first among all states in the number of new residents. It has three of the nation's 10 biggest cities as it did a decade ago (Houston, San Antonio and Dallas) and four of the fastest-growing (Frisco, McKinney, New Braunfels and Conroe).
Out of all U.S. counties, Harris County gained the most new residents (638,686). Tarrant County gained the fifth most (301,606) followed by Bexar County (294,551). Other Texas counties ranking in the top 20 with the most new residents include Collin County, Travis County, Dallas County, Denton County and Fort Bend County.
U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess, a Lewisville Republican, has the largest district among Tarrant area lawmakers with 943,106 people. The district includes part of Tarrant County and most of Denton County.
Thursday's figures show that 1.04 million Tarrant County residents — slightly less than half the population — describe themselves only as white, a 13% drop from 1.2 million in 2010.
Tarrant County's non-Hispanic white residents make up 42.9% of its population, Hispanic residents 29.4% and Black residents 17%. Texas' non-Hispanic white residents make up 39.7% of its 29 million people, Hispanic residents 39.3% and Black residents 11.8%.
"With that growing population, we're seeing growing neighborhood diversity," said Kyle Walker, an associate geography professor at TCU. "And it's not just neighborhood diversity in areas where we already thought about people or different groups living together. You see growing diversification of suburban neighborhoods that maybe weren't diverse previously."
The redistricting process
The 2020 census was delayed by the coronavirus pandemic, pushing redistricting into a special session. Redistricting isn't on the agenda for the current session, but Abbott has indicated he plans to call on lawmakers to handle the process in the coming months.
Census data will be ready for use by Sept. 1, according to a memo from Rep. Todd Hunter, a Corpus Christi Republican who chairs the House Redistricting Committee, obtained by the Quorum Report. Then the committee will hold public hearings.
Texas has ended up in court over past maps. In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court opted not to consider a Texas case related to partisan gerrymandering. Maps from 2013 — crafted after lawsuits challenged 2011's maps for racial discrimination — were allowed to stand by the court, with the exception of Fort Worth's House District 90, found to have been racially gerrymandered.
Jim Riddlesperger, a TCU political science professor, said it's likely there will be attempts to challenge Texas maps again after this redistricting cycle. But related court rulings signal that the U.S. Supreme Court may not be receptive to partisan challenges.
This round of redistricting will also be the first since the court in 2013 struck down parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 requiring federal approval of election laws. Texas had been required to get approval of redistricting plans from the U.S. Department of Justice or a federal court.
A few issues could affect the redistricting plans. The Texas House of Representatives hasn't had a quorum in weeks, which is needed for members to conduct business. Also, the For the People Act in Congress includes language requiring an independent redistricting commission in states. The Senate has not debated the bill, and the lawmakers are on recess. But they may consider a trimmed down version of the bill when they return, according to the New York Times.
Will North Texas get a new congressional seat?
Lawmakers may consider several factors as they craft the districts, Riddlesperger said: Protecting incumbents, particularly Republican members of the U.S. House delegation, and trying to pack as many Democrats as possible in urban districts, giving Republicans more solidly red districts. Republicans may also be looking to make sure there's enough of a cushion for a district to stay red for the entire decade, he said.
Li said he expects to see demand for a Latino opportunity district in North Texas, where Latino voters have an opportunity to influence election outcomes. He pointed out that suburbs in the state are getting more diverse.
"I think the battle in a lot of ways will be in the suburbs," he said. "It'll be Republicans trying to dismantle districts that look increasingly good for Democrats because they're becoming more diverse."
Riddlesperger too predicted that North Texas would get another congressional seat, with the second going to the Houston area or the Austin-San Antonio corridor. He expects the districts to cut across suburban and city areas.
"There is going to be more representation for North Texas in the new Congress, but will that be primarily a Fort Worth-centric district, or will it be a primarily Dallas-centric district, or will it be a district that bridges between the two, I think that remains to be seen," he said.
