On Wednesday, one of the NFL’s prominent holdouts ended when the Saints gave fourth-year wide receiver Michael Thomas a five year, $96.25 million extension that could be good for up to $100 million total if certain escalators are reached. Thomas got a $20 million signing bonus, and his 2019 and 2020 salaries are fully guaranteed, as well as $3 million of his 2121 salary, which adds over $15 million to the up-front guarantees. In 2021 and 2022, his salaries are fully guaranteed on the third day of each league year, and he is due roster bonuses each year from 2022 through 2024.
So, the numbers are big, but it’s not a lock he’ll earn all this money. Thomas, who turned 26 in March, will have to play his way through most of the deal, which he’s certainly capable of doing. The question is whether he’s in a position to carry the biggest contract on its face ever given to a receiver. Thomas leapfrogged Odell Beckham, Jr.’s five-year, $90 million deal, and every other contract given to a wide receiver, quite comfortably.
Has he done enough to be worth it? In the context of salaries at his position, the numbers say he has.
Thomas has the most catches (321) for any receiver in the first three seasons of his career, once again outpacing Beckham, as well as Jarvis Landry, A.J. Green and Anquan Boldin. Only Randy Moss, Beckham and Green have more receiving yards than Thomas’ 4,163 through three years, and the only place Thomas doesn’t quite measure up is touchdowns (23), though that’s as much a function of New Orleans’ offense as anything else. Thomas’ three-year catch rate of 77.0% is the highest in NFL history among receivers with at least 200 catches, and his 85% catch rate in 2018 was the highest in NFL history for any receiver with at least 40 targets. And he wasn’t getting by with dinky stuff. Per Pro Football Focus, Thomas was targeted on 12 passes of 20 air yards or more last season, with eight catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns.
According to the Football Outsiders Almanac, including the postseason, Thomas has more catches (352 vs. 289) and yards (4,210 vs. 3,898) than the four other wide receivers selected in the first round of the same 2016 draft in which he had to wait until the second round.
By any statistical measure, Thomas’ career has been a triumph to date, and he’s in a high-volume passing system with a quarterback, Drew Brees, who wants to play until he’s 45. Brees will turn 41 in January, and as long as his late-season regression in 2018 was more about injury than age, there’s no reason to think Thomas can’t stay on his historic pace. In particular, his combination of explosiveness and efficiency is something we’d never really seen before.
“What you see on game day is what I see during practice every day,” Brees said of Thomas in January, just after the Saints beat the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Thomas had 12 catches on 16 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. “It’s not like the guy just turns it on for game day. He practices that way, every day in practice. That same intensity, attention to detail, and that fire, passion and competitive drive. We try to put ourselves in those moments during practice, and when game day shows up and you’re making those same plays, it’s no surprise to us. It certainly doesn’t surprise anyone on this team what he’s been able to accomplish this year and what he’s been able to do today. He’s a big-time player who wants to be the guy to make plays when you need it most. And he did that today.”
Asked if Thomas should be considered among the best receivers in the league, Brees said: “I think there is certainly an argument. There are a lot of great wide receivers in this league, and certainly he should be in the conversation.”
There is indeed an argument, and the tape shows exactly what Thomas brings to the conversation.
Here’s a 22-yard reception where Thomas rips up Philadelphia’s coverage in that divisional-round game. The Eagles have cornerback Josh Hawkins (No. 48) on Thomas (No. 13) at the bottom of the screen, and when safety Tre Sullivan (No. 37) drops down to check running back Alvin Kamara (No. 41), that puts Sullivan one-on-one with Thomas, and no help over the top. Safety Malcolm Jenkins (No. 27) is covering receiver Keith Kirkwood (No. 18) up the middle deep, and if you don’t bracket Thomas, this is what happens.
I enjoyed this touchdown catch against the Bengals in Week 10 as an example of how well Thomas can create free space in constricted areas with sudden movement and exceptional route understanding. Here, he bodies cornerback William Jackson (No. 22) to the goal post and then separates quickly to bring in Brees’ throw. The body control to make the catch near the ground is the proverbial frosting on the cake, but the separation from the defender is the truly impressive part of this play — and it’s something Thomas does frequently.
Against the Rams in a 45-35 Week 9 win, Thomas absolutely demolished Wade Phillips’ pass defense, especially when cornerback Marcus Peters was covering him. As Sean Payton said after the game: “They were going to travel Marcus to [Thomas], and that was fine by us. We thought we really liked that matchup, a lot.”
Later in the week, Peters responded thusly: “Tell Sean Payton to keep talking that [expletive]. We’re going to see him soon. You feel me? Yeah, because I like what he was saying on the sidelines, too. Tell him, ‘Keep talking that [expletive]. And I hope to see you soon.’ You hear me? And then we’ll have a nice little bowl of gumbo together.”
Well, that did happen later, in the NFC championship game. But before that, Peters was completely toasted on this 72-yard touchdown that put the game away for the Saints. This looked like some pre-snap miscommunication on a combo coverage.
“Third down-and-6, I just looked back and tried to make a play on the ball. [Expletive] happens like that in football,” Peters said after the game. “We were just trying to get in line and get something off, and it just happened like that, I got beat. Regardless of communication, I got beat. Once the play starts you have got to go out there and you have to compete. I did, and they got it off for a touchdown.”
The Rams got their revenge on Thomas in the championship round; the wideout caught just four passes on seven targets for 36 yards. But this was also a game in which Brees, at the end of a stretch of struggles late in the season, threw just three deep passes, completing one. Thomas wasn’t in line for a lot of big plays, though he did beat Peters again on this crossing route from the left slot.
“There were some differences,” Brees said after the game when asked if the Rams were covering Thomas differently. “Some times when he was getting doubled. They were playing more zone now than when we played the first time. I think it was just, call it the playoffs, and just everyone is just elevating their game a little bit. Everyone is playing a little tighter.”
A tough end to a great season for Thomas and the Saints, especially when you factor in the non-call that was the real story of the game.
But one thing the Saints got out of the 2019 season was the absolute realization that Michael Thomas made the jump to the elite at his position, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t be even better. That’s what his new contract says, and there’s no reason to argue with that.
