The Rugby World Cup is the ultimate challenge, the pinnacle for players and nations. One thing I’ve come to appreciate about the tournament, having had the privilege of coaching a team in three of them, is that world rankings and being the favourite count for nothing.
Since the World Cup was first staged in New Zealand more than a quarter of a century ago there have been seven tournaments but only four nations have triumphed: New Zealand twice at home, Australia twice in the UK, South Africa twice – at home and in France – and England in Australia 12 years ago.
So why is it so challenging to win a World Cup? It is the major focus of all rugby-playing nations, as results in between tournaments show. Only New Zealand have an expectation of winning every Test: their percentage record leading up to the past three tournaments was between 81 and 88%.
That compares to South Africa, between 60 and 64%, Australia 55-60%, France 41-56%, Ireland 53-69%, England 38-65% and Wales, 49-53%. The winning percentage of the All Blacks is between 12 and 50% better than the first six teams below them in the rankings, and their success rate in the professional era is an extraordinary 83%, rising to 87% in the past decade.
A consequence of this mentality, which I am not criticising, is that New Zealand do not improve as much as other nations. You can expect other countries to play better in a World Cup than they normally do, as I found when coaching the All Blacks in 2007.
We went into the tournament having won 19 of our previous 20 Tests. We played France in the quarter-finals, a team we had beaten 61-10 four months earlier, but lost. In 2003, New Zealand lost in the semi-final against Australia in Sydney having defeated them 51-20 at the same venue four months before.
The World Cup has a different format to the Six Nations and the Rugby Championship, four pool games followed by three knockout rounds of must-win contests. Wales and Ireland have won the past three Six Nations titles between them having lost a match, and last year New Zealand won the Rugby Championship having lost to South Africa and drawn with Australia.
Another important factor in World Cup success is home advantage. Three of the seven World Cups have been won by a host nation and the home team have played in two other finals, meaning in seven tournaments the home side has played in five of the finals.
The pressure is greater at a World Cup, expectations heightened. The teams who have the awareness to appreciate that pressure and expectation are a privilege, earned by success, will be contenders. They will also need the ability to handle critical moments such as losing key players to injury and decisions made by officials.
It is all but guaranteed that the winner of the World Cup will be one of the seven teams named above, but this tournament looks the least clear-cut of them all. It will be about gaining momentum: form and history will not count for anything once play starts.
The criteria for winning has been based on an outstanding goalkicker, a champion playmaker at fly-half, a brilliant defence and an inspirational captain. And a drop-goal specialist, a method of scoring that has decided two finals in extra time.
The inaugural final in 1987 turned out to be an exception, with the victorious All Blacks scoring three tries against France, but in the fly-half Grant Fox they possessed the best director and goalkicker in the world and they were well led by David Kirk.
The 1991 Wallabies, superbly captained by the scrum-half Nick Farr-Jones, scored the only try in the final with a world-class fly-half, Michael Lynagh, kicking the rest of the points in a 12-6 win over England. Another No10, Joel Stransky, won the 1995 final against New Zealand with a drop goal and, again, the winners had an inspirational captain, Francois Pienaar.
And so it goes on. John Eales led the 1999 winning Wallabies, who defeated South Africa in the semi-final through the first drop goal of the fly-half Stephen Larkham’s Test career. England had Jonny Wilkinson and Martin Johnson in 2003, John Smit inspired South Africa in 2007 and four years later Stephen Donald, the fourth choice fly-half, kicked the winning penalty for the All Blacks against France. When I look back at that night, I think of the two captains: Thierry Dusautoir, who was later named as the player of the tournament, and Richie McCaw, probably the most influential captain in the history of the game. Four years on, they are still leading their countries.
There were two tries in that final, one by each side, France’s from a turnover and ours from a lineout move we had not used for two years. You need to keep some secrets for the big one and the next few weeks will reveal them.
