They say the bookies rarely get it wrong, and one glance at my betting history would seem to prove the point. But when it comes to predicting who the next manager of any given club may be, the lists of runners and riders they produce should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.
Just a couple of bets on a particular candidate can move the needle dramatically, so Rangers fans shouldn’t be placing any real stock in the names near the top of the odds at this moment in time.
Still, one of the names up there has certainly got people talking, and it is easy to see why he might be fancied. Steven Gerrard, the former Ibrox boss who ‘went for 55’ and delivered it is available after leaving Saudi Pro League side Al-Ettifaq.
As the only Rangers manager to win a Premiership title since their return to the top-flight a decade ago, his return to Ibrox will of course hold an emotional appeal for many fans. And given that he knows what it takes to wrest that trophy from Celtic, it is a move that would seem to - on the face of it, at least - make sense from a footballing perspective too.
But when it comes to Gerrard and his first spell in Glasgow, I have always felt that the single title he won during his time here, coupled with the misery that has followed for Rangers fans amid relentless Celtic dominance, has given many a rose-tinted, revisionist view of his time in charge on the south side of the city.
In the eighth minute, cognisant of the hand that Gerrard had been dealt and acknowledging the improvements he had made from a very low baseline set by Pedro Caixinha before a collapse in the new year, the Rangers support rose to applaud in a show of support for their manager.
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By the final whistle though, after another demoralising 1-0 defeat to the side rooted to the bottom of the table saw them slip 13 points behind Celtic, goodwill was in short supply.
“A shambles, lacking in direction and leadership,” read one report from that evening.
“Gerrard faces another round of desperate soul searching,” said another.
He limped on until a 3-1 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen the following week signalled the last action before lockdown, and had you conducted a snap poll of Rangers supporters on Gerrard’s future that evening, chances are the outcome wouldn’t have been favourable for the Scouser.
As it turned out though, he was able to use the time presented to him by fate to regroup and galvanise his squad, and no matter the theories around the positive effect a lack of fans may have had on Rangers and the negative effect a lack of fans may have had on Celtic, Gerrard’s Rangers team were hugely impressive that season.
They were the first to go through the league campaign unbeaten (albeit they lost in both cups to St Mirren and St Johnstone) since Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic side of 2016/17, and equalled Celtic’s 107-year-old record of 26 clean sheets across their Premiership campaign. More importantly, he stopped Celtic winning 10 in a row.
So, whatever the missteps of Celtic that term, they would have been hard-pressed to keep pace in any case. You cannot take the achievements of that season away from Gerrard.
However, either side of that remarkable campaign, nothing on Gerrard’s managerial CV marks him out as someone that Rangers should be considering for the manager’s job now. Nothing he has done either before or since has been particularly impressive.
Having left Ibrox in the middle of the next season for Aston Villa, provoking no little outrage within the Rangers support and the infamous decapitation of at least one Stevie G cardboard cutout, he was sacked just under a year later having won only 13 of his 40 games in charge and with his team hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone.
The move to Saudi Arabia followed, but again, Gerrard struggled, as Al-Ettifaq won just five of their 17 games this season before he moved on after an 18-month stay in the Gulf State at the end of January.
The role of Michael Beale as the tactical genius behind Gerrard’s success at Rangers was – clearly, given his own struggles when in charge at Ibrox – rather overblown. But if he was to return, Gerrard would also be without his former right-hand man. Frankly, Neil Lennon as assistant manager might be more palatable to the Rangers support.
The argument for bringing him back to the club then really boils down to the gravitas he possesses, the winner’s mentality he was renowned for throughout his brilliant playing career, and a perception that he would come in and boot some backsides among a squad who seem unable to get themselves motivated unless they are playing Celtic or in European competition.
But wasn’t that also the rationale behind appointing Barry Ferguson on an interim basis? No one knows more about the standards and expectations that were once a given within Ibrox than the former Rangers captain, and if he can’t impress them upon this squad, then who can?
With the 49ers takeover set to signal a new era at the club, what is needed is a new broom to sweep through both the dressing room and the dugout. A fresh start. Not more harking back to a past that is slipping ever further into the recesses of time.
Leaving nostalgia for that one season of title success to the side, there is hardly a solid body of evidence to show that Gerrard would be a success second time around. Rangers should thank him for the memories, but ensure those aren’t tarnished by taking a gamble on him once more.
Picking a manager is not an exact science, of course. On paper, Phillipe Clement should have worked.
But if you ask yourself what is likelier to unfold should Gerrard return, a replication of the ‘55’ season or more of the same sort of struggles that have been typical of the rest of his managerial career, then I know where my money would be.
