Porsche was in bullish mood as it evaluated its title chances at this weekend’s World Endurance Championship finale in Bahrain. It is the manufacturer with the momentum in the title fight after thrusting itself right into contention with Ferrari, the points leaders in both the drivers’ and makes’ standings since the opening round in Qatar right back at the end of February. It reckoned there was everything to play for as it aims to bow out on a high as a factory from the WEC’s Hypercar class.
On the face of it, the task facing them on Saturday in the Bahrain 8 Hours would appear to be a tall order. If Kevin Estre and Laurens Vanthoor are to retain the title won last year with Andre Lotterer, they will have to overhaul a 21-point deficit to the championship-leading Ferrari crew of Antonio Giovinazzi, James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi. What’s more there’s another Ferrari crew, Robert Kubica, Yifei Ye and Phil Hanson in the Le Mans 24 Hours-winning satellite entry eight points ahead of them in the standings - or 13 down on #51. The gap between Ferrari and Porsche in the manufacturers’ classification is 39 points.
But the message from Porsche Penske Motorsport team boss Jonathan Diuguid last week during a pre-event press call is for the German manufacturer to keep doing what it’s been doing over the past three races. The results of the #6 Porsche 963 LMDh have propelled Estre and Vanthoor into a position where the title looks possible. Their quest has been aided by the poor form of the #51 Giovinazzi/Calado/Pier Guidi Ferrari: their respective points tallies over the Interlagos, Austin and Fuji rounds since July are 52 and 10.
“It is definitely achievable,” said Diuguid, who was promoted from MD of PPM to Penske Racing president this summer. “What I have told people in the team is that if the results finish the same way as they did in Fuji, we walk away with both championships.”
That didn’t look a realistic proposition before or even after Le Mans, second position or no for Estre, Vanthoor and Matt Campbell - the Australian again joins the #6 crew for Bahrain. Vanthoor concedes that he thought the championship was gone.
“Before Le Mans, we were like, okay, this is not going to happen because obviously Ferrari was very strong and winning all the races,” says the Belgian, who admits that his opinion didn’t change after the French enduro. A victory in the wet at Austin early in September with Campbell changed his thinking. “It was, now we have a good race in Fuji and they make mistakes, then we are still in with a shot.”
Both came to pass in Japan later in the month. Estre and Vanthoor came back from a disastrous qualifying on the part of the Frenchman to claim third position. Just as significantly, the drivers of the #51 Ferrari 499P Le Mans Hypercar failed to score. It was the second ‘nul points’ for the championship leaders after Interlagos in July over the post-Le Mans leg of the campaign. A clash with the Proton customer 963 and two penalties for the car explain why finished down in 15th.
Estre used the buzz word execution. “It was our strength last year and continues to be our strength this year,” he said. “Even when the quali was not great, we have always executed the race well, which was the case in Fuji last time. It was all about maximising the performance, taking risks at the right time and not making mistakes. Even if we have not been perfect, we have been better than the drivers we are fighting against in the championship.”
Porsche is going into the race at Bahrain in a low-pressure situation. That contrasts with last year when with a 35-point lead it had everything to lose - and almost did. Vanthoor had a shocker of a race, receiving three late penalties. It ended up not mattering that the car finished outside the points in 11th, which subsequently became 10th when one of the Ferraris was penalised.
“We are not in the same position as last year when we were favourites,” said Vanthoor. “I clearly showed how the pressure of the situation affects you. This year we are the other way around with nothing to lose.”
Porsche was clearly hinting that the pressure told at Ferrari in Japan. That might be a bit of gamesmanship on its part, but Estre and Vanthoor were talking like drivers who genuinely believed they could yank the end of season trophy from Ferrari’s grasp.
That was last week, last Thursday to be correct. The following day the Balance of Performance for Bahrain was released to the manufacturers and then published on Monday. It may or may not have made sorry reading for Porsche, PPM and its drivers. In theory at least, a manufacturer can work out its own BoP. Series organisers the FIA and the Automobile Club de l’Ouest told us that at the start of the year, though how that has been affected by the shifts in the BoP process through the season isn’t entirely clear. What it couldn’t do with complete certainty, however, was work out the BoP for its rivals.
The harsh reality as Estre and Vanthoor look to make it two titles in a row is that the 963 will go to the grid heavier than it has ever been and with the lowest baseline power since its introduction in 2023. What’s more, Ferrari’s 499P is now both lighter and has more base power than the German car for the first time this campaign.
Estre is insisting that everything he and Vanthoor said last week stands, even if he conceded that the BoP hasn’t “gone in the right direction” for Porsche.
“Our goals are the same,” he says. “We are not saying it is going to be easy, we’ve never been saying that. Our strength over the past few races has been execution and we’ve seen Ferrari make mistakes. There’s a lot of manufacturers in the fight, and if you make just a little mistake, you don’t lose just two places.”
The size of Porsche’s deficit means it needs to score big to have any chance of taking home a title or perhaps two from Bahrain. It has to finish on the podium even with 39 points up for grabs over the weekend, which is points and a half compared with a regular six-hour race. Anything less than the 23 points for third and the Porsche drivers wouldn’t be able to overhaul the factory Ferrari trio wherever they finish.
It is more complex in the manufacturers’ standings given that two cars can score. There are a maximum of 66 on offer in the Bahraini desert.
Diuguid insists that Porsche isn’t targeting one over the other, nor suggesting one is more important. An interesting point, however, is that the WEC manufacturers’ is the only championship that the Porsche hasn’t won with the 963. Over in the IMSA SportsCar Championship this year, PPM retained all the end-of-season silverware on offer, again claiming drivers’, teams’ and manufacturers’ title in the regular series classification and in the IMSA Endurance Cup made up of the five long-distance races.
The task in hand for the crew of the satellite Ferrari is more straightforward given that the series is climaxing as usual with an extra-points race. It is offering them, confidence, too, reckons Hanson.
“We are thinking we’re right in it,” says the Briton. “We take the title if we win and the #51 car finishes third, so it’s all to play for. But we know we have to be running up front to score enough points to beat them.”
The shift in the BoP for Bahrain might affect the ability of the #83 Ferrari to do that. Toyota appears to be a winner on that front: its GR010 HYBRID LMH has lost weight and gained in baseline power. A car that has yet to make it onto the podium this season is at its lightest and most powerful of the post-Le Mans leg of the series, and at a venue at which it has always excelled. Remember Sebastien Buemi’s blinding charge to victory 12 months ago that sealed the manufacturers’ title for Toyota.
Cadillac retains a shot at the drivers’ title, a very long one, and what might be described as a mathematical chance of taking the manufacturers’ trophy. Alex Lynn, Will Stevens and Norman Nato lie 34 points off the lead in the former, the US manufacturer 61 points behind in the latter. Any faint chance it had appears to have been ripped away by the Bahrain BoP. The Caddy V-Series.R LMDh has lost a whopping 32bhp in base power at the same time as gaining a smidgeon in minimum weight.
The championship looks less open than it did a week ago, but Porsche isn’t giving up. “We have to do what we always do,” says Vanthoor. “Race well, execute well and stay out of trouble.”
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