The fallout from Manchester City’s 2-1 Champions League loss away to RB Leipzig was pretty level-headed, as you might expect.
The Blues had already secured qualification into the knockout phase as Group winners, therefore the fixture was somewhat of a dead rubber.
Yet even so, goals scored by the hosts on both sides of half-time condemned City to a fifth straight match without a clean sheet.
You’d have to go back to September 2020 for the last time that happened.
Shut-outs were a staple of City’s game early on in the season. They secured four across their opening six matches and up until mid-November had one of the best defensive records across Europe’s top five leagues.
When asked if he had any worries about City’s current leaky defence, Guardiola said: 'Of course it is better not to concede goals but in all the games we played much better than the opponents, except today where we struggled a little bit in the first half.
"But in general we made an incredibly good group stage. We qualified with one game left from a tough group, so I am more than satisfied with the performance in every single game.'
City’s blistering attack meant that except in that Leipzig match, positive results were still secured in all of those games in which their goal was breached.
Yet up next in the Premier League are Wolves, a side who’ve proved to be a robust defensive unit who are tough to break down.
Only the Premier League’s top three have conceded fewer than Bruno Lage’s men so far this season, and his side did an excellent job of shutting out a red-hot Liverpool last weekend, conceding eventually only in stoppage time to lose 1-0.
On this basis, it’s possible that the visitors could prove a tough nut to crack and goals may be at a premium.
Therefore defensive slip-ups at the other end could prove costly in terms of points in this extremely tight Premier League title race that’s unfolding.
Yet based on the underlying numbers, City’s defence still looks as robust as it was earlier in the season, despite the lack of clean sheets.
We can highlight this by utilising xG-against (xGA) numbers. xGA is useful because it assigns a value to shooting chances, even the resulting shot didn’t lead to a goal. It helps ascertain a more rounded picture of defensive performance, beyond relying on goals alone.
Across the last five matches, City’s xGA averaged out at 0.88 per game. Whilst in the five matches prior to that sequence, a run that saw the Blues secure three clean sheets, City’s xGA average was 0.76.
That is only a marginal difference between the two and certainly not big enough of an increase to indicate a radical drop in defensive efficiency, even despite the growing narrative arguing the contrary.
Therefore whilst it’s not uncommon for occasional goals to be conceded in a variance-filled game such as football, City continue to perform to a level that should mean that goals are scored against them far less when compared to most other sides they face.
As a result, don’t be shocked to see the clean sheets start to become more regular once again across these coming weeks, and hopefully, that’ll start this weekend.
