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Pandora Media Inc. (P) stock is down 22% in early trading Friday after the company reported earnings. Sales grew 7.6% year-over-year to $378.6 million, but missed analysts' expectations. A 6-cent loss per share beat estimates by 2 cents.
Total subs climbed 29% year-over-year while paid subs crossed the 1 million market last month. Subscription revenue of $84.4 million climbed 50% year-over-year, but listening hours fell from 5.4 billion to 5.15 billion year-over-year.
Was this a knock-your-socks-off quarter? Not really. But does it deserve a 20% haircut after already falling more than 40% so far this year?
There's been a few analysts out casting their response. On the surface, it's not overwhelmingly positive. The downgrades are flying and Pandora stock is hitting new 52-week lows.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth downgraded Pandora to neutral and lowered his price target to $9 from $14. Advertising trends "are deteriorating," he said and it will take time for Pandora's investments in advertising to pay off. There are no near-term catalysts to boost the stock. Still, with Pandora stock trading near $6, the current price target implies about 50% upside to the name.
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SunTrust analyst Matthew Thorton was in the same boat. He downgraded Pandora to hold from buy and cut his price target to $8 from $10.50. The company's "sobering" outlook showed its struggles. Listening hours should remain under pressure and advertising headwinds are likely to persist. More time and investment is needed to improve its "ad tech product map," he reasoned.
Stifel's John Egbert also downgraded Pandora to hold from buy. The user base is declining and Pandora's "inadequate ad technology" are the primary challenges right now. A turnaround is certainly possible, but will take several quarters of improving the underlying trends. He cut his price target to $8 from $12, which would still imply about 33% upside.
The silver lining? Despite catching three downgrades, with more likely to come, Pandora stock still has decent upside according to these analysts. However, there surely has to be concern over Spotify, which has continued its rapid growth this year, as well as concern over Apple (AAPL) Music and Amazon (AMZN) Prime music.
Apple just turned in a strong quarter, and at least as it relates to Pandora, many may be wondering whether the latter gets left out in the music battle.
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