Notre Dame is in position to make the College Football Playoff. It shouldn’t be—not yet, anyway—but it is. Those shiny gold helmets must have blinded the selection committee members to reality.
The Fighting Irish (6–2) were gifted with a No. 10 ranking in the first installment of the CFP Top 25. If they win out to finish 10–2—their only remaining serious challenge should be at No. 24 Pittsburgh on Nov. 15—they’re far more likely to rise from that spot than fall. Their destiny is in their hands.
This kind treatment Tuesday was a bit more than Notre Dame deserves at this juncture. The Irish have one quality win, at home against 6–2 USC. They have two losses, one by three points at Miami and at home by a single point against Texas A&M.
The defeat against the Aggies came on a touchdown pass in the final seconds and after a botched extra-point hold on the last Notre Dame TD. A&M is undefeated and ranked No. 3, so it’s hardly a bad loss.
For many weeks, the loss to the Hurricanes wasn’t bad either. But Miami has now lost two of its last three games, most recently to unranked SMU, and was a startlingly low No. 18 in the first CFP Top 25. Even though the committee doesn’t care much for Miami’s body of work—or anyone’s in the beleaguered Atlantic Coast Conference—losing to the Canes isn’t holding Notre Dame back.
Now consider who is ranked four spots behind the Irish. Louisville (7–1) has a better record than Notre Dame and beat the Miami team that defeated the Irish. To repeat: better record, better result against a common ranked opponent, four spots lower.
“When we look at the tape, we think Notre Dame is a really solid football team, both sides of the ball,” said selection committee chairman Mack Rhoades, the athletic director at Baylor. He’s the latest luckless spokesman with a thankless task on the weekly TV show. In this case, the message seems to be that turning on the tape matters more than the game results.
Or, it’s almost like brand name matters in college football.
The two teams also have both played Boston College, with almost identical results. The Eagles lost by 15 to Notre Dame and 14 to Louisville. They were outgained by 177 yards by the Irish and 144 yards by the Cardinals. Louisville led by 49 minutes and 49 seconds; Notre Dame led for 44:52.
How about the rest of the résumés?
Louisville defeated Pitt, and did so on the road. Its lone loss was in overtime against a Virginia team that the committee ranked No. 13. A victory over James Madison (7–1) has gained some currency as the season has gone on. Wins over FCS Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green are empty calories. All conference road wins are good wins, but beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Va., doesn’t move the needle much.
Notre Dame has three victories over last-place power-conference teams: Purdue of the Big Ten; Arkansas of the SEC; and BC of the ACC. The two other teams the Irish have defeated, Boise State and North Carolina State, are both ranked lower in the Sagarin Ratings (56th and 47th, respectively) than James Madison (38th).
The potential saving grace for the Cardinals is this: Even if the committee doesn’t like them or their conference, they can force their way into the field. Make the ACC championship game and win it, and they’re locked in. The Irish have no such automatic path.
But they do have Notre Dame aura, Notre Dame fan backing and Notre Dame ratings cache. If you’re putting together a bracket for maximum TV impact, you want the Irish in it.
I’m not saying that was a deciding factor. But I am saying that the highest-ranked two-loss team Tuesday was the Irish. And they were ahead of three one-loss teams from the ACC.
Along those lines, the clearest message from the committee was that it is wildly unimpressed by the ACC, which did not have a great nonconference run and has been hurt by the flops from Florida State and Clemson. (The two schools that raised holy hell in the league to gain unequal revenue distribution because they believed they were far superior to everyone else are currently in 15th place and tied for 12th, respectively.) The Big 12, which cleaned up on head-to-head matchups with the ACC, was rewarded with three teams being ranked ahead of the top ACC program.
The other message—less clear, but noticeable—was that all the squawking about strength of schedule didn’t lead to an overthrow of the status quo. The committee still largely ranked teams along win-loss lines.
The top three (Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M) are undefeated. Then came three one-loss teams (Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi). Then came the last unbeaten, BYU, followed by two more one-loss teams (Texas Tech and Oregon). After that came the parade of two-loss teams, led by Notre Dame.
The Irish got the positioning they were hoping for Tuesday night to make the playoff for a second straight season. Even if there were other teams more deserving of that No. 10 ranking.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why Notre Dame’s No. 10 College Football Playoff Ranking Doesn’t Add Up.
