As soon the clock struck midnight on the morning of May 8, NFL teams could stop worrying about the compensatory pick formula.
This formula tracks the comings and goings of free agents from the opening of the 2019 league year on March 13 through May 7. The exact math behind the formula isn’t public, but it awards teams with draft picks based on how many players they lose and what those players earn on new deals (comp picks start at the end of the third round.)
But the formula also takes into account the free agents signed by a team: if you add a quality player, you’re likely to lose compensatory picks or have those picks moved down in the draft.
Unless you wait until today.
That helps to explain why a number of talented players have languished without a contract, and why you can expect those players to start signing new deals. A partial list of the best available includes:
- DT Ndamukong Suh
- DE Ezekiel Ansah
- RB Jay Ajayi
- S Eric Berry
- S Tre Boston
- WR Michael Crabtree
- DT Corey Liuget
- DE Muhammad Wilkerson
- OLB Derrick Morgan
- LB Jamie Collins
- CB Morris Claiborne
Smart teams — most notably the Patriots and Eagles — have worked to game the compensatory pick formula in recent years because draft picks — lottery tickets that very often deliver productive players who don’t cost much — are essential to building championship teams under the salary cap.
The Patriots, for example, are likely to receive third-round picks, the highest value for a compensatory pick, in next year’s draft due to the departures of defensive end Trey Flowers and tackle Trent Brown.
But the Patriots also signed a couple of free agents, such as defensive tackle Mike Pennel and tight ends Matt LaCosse and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Those additions could be offset by the additional losses of receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Chris Hogan and defensive tackle Malcom Brown, among others, but New England isn’t taking any chances.
Belichick — who is a master at manipulating the formula (the Patriots had four comp picks this year and the most overall since 2015) — intentionally put off signing tackle Jared Veldheer, who agreed to terms with the Patriots before May 7 but won’t ink the contract until May 8 or later. That will keep him from factoring in the compensatory pick formula.
