Claims by the justice secretary, Michael Gove, and Vote Leave that Turkey could achieve full membership of the EU by 2020 will come as a big surprise to the Turkish government and people.
Turkey’s application has been languishing since 1987, when Ankara first asked Brussels to consider its case for joining. It was not officially recognised as a candidate until 1999. That was 17 years ago. Since then, things have not gone well. Formal negotiations did not begin for a further six years, and then they rapidly got bogged down, which is how matters broadly stand now.
Aspiring members must adopt EU rules and standards. They do so in stages, a process that involves agreeing separately to each of 35 chapters. After nearly 30 years, only one negotiating chapter has been agreed with Turkey. Fifteen are, in theory, open for discussion, while talks about the remainder – the most difficult bits, such as freedom of movement – have not even begun.
The main reason why matters have proceeded so slowly is that the EU’s big beasts, France and Germany, do not want Turkey to join. Hardly anything happens in the EU without the agreement of these two founding members. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president now tipped to return to the Élysée next spring, was first to put the boot in. Almost the first thing he did after he was elected in 2007 was to block talks with Turkey on economic and monetary policy. Sarkozy argued that Turkey was not part of Europe and had no place in the EU. François Hollande is similarly unsympathetic.
Angela Merkel, Germany’s long-serving chancellor, also opposes Turkish membership. Merkel has used the carrot of accelerated negotiations to facilitate a deal with Turkey on returning Syrian migrants. But her basic position, backed by large cross-party majorities in Germany, is that Turkey should not be granted full membership.
And even if Turkey were somehow allowed in, the EU’s freedom of movement rules would almost certainly not apply at first. Like Romania and Bulgaria after they joined in 2007, Turkish workers would not be allowed simply to move to the UK or other EU states. Britain’s membership of the Schengen area creates another specific barrier.
Similar obstacles face other current EU applicants – Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania. Apart from concerns about immigration and jobs, the EU is suffering “enlargement fatigue”. Many European politicians feel 28 member states is more than enough. New members are not welcome – and all 28 national parliaments have a right of veto. This reluctance, incidentally, would affect any membership bid by an independent Scotland.
Turkey’s leaders and public know all this only too well, even if Gove and the Brexiters do not. Support for EU membership has dropped in Turkey in recent years, part of a backlash against perceived discriminatory treatment by what the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, calls a “Christian club”.
Turkey under Erdoğan has turned eastwards, away from Europe. Stung by European criticism of human rights abuses and a crackdown on press freedom, he has sometimes given the impression he would like to scrap the EU talks altogether. The appointment of a party loyalist, Binali Yildirim, as prime minister elect, means Erdoğan’s Europhobia may develop unchecked. Vote Leave’s argument is borderline fantasy for other reasons. Although Turkey’s economy has faltered of late, its record of expansive GDP growth since the 1990s is impressive. Living standards have risen for most.
Gove’s claim that more than 5 million people could move to the UK from the EU by 2030 reveals a surprising ignorance of European realities.
