Barring an upset of almost unimaginable proportions, Labour is going to be returned on May 5 with a decent majority. So why is the party still so very anxious to get out their vote? Partly because they are twitchy about the reliability of polls, partly because even a reduced majority would look like a setback, but mostly because Tony Blair (or Gordon Brown) is going to need a very substantial majority to be sure of getting the legislation he wants through parliament.
Labour backbenchers, as Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart of Revolts.co.uk observe in this report (in pdf), are an unusually rebellious lot. Iraq prompted the biggest rebellion in a ruling party since the Corn Laws in the 19th century. But it wasn't just the war: 65 Labour MPs voted against foundation hospitals in 2003 and 72 against top-up fees last year. Figures like that give a hint of just how hard it may be for Mr Blair to push further reforms through in a third term with a slim majority - especially if the tactical voters get their way and some of the more obedient Labour MPs are voted out.
Cowley and Stuart have also faithfully recorded the rebellions of Conservative and Lib Dem MPs in the last parliament. (Yes, the odd Lib Dem does rebel - though the authors suggest that Vince Cable may have wandered into the wrong lobby by accident while mulling over fiscal policy.)
