Lately, there has been a lot of news about declining alcohol sales in North America, and speculation as to why that might be.
As director of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria, I consider this an important development and a topic worth exploring given its implications for health and society more broadly.
Is the decline real?
Based on alcohol sales data (which is more reliable than self-reported survey data), the decline appears to be real. According to Statistics Canada, per capita alcohol sales (the average amount sold per person aged 15 years and older) declined for the fourth consecutive year, from 8.3 litres of ethanol (roughly 487 standard drinks per year) in 2020-21 to 6.8 litres (399 standard drinks) in 2024-25, a rather dramatic decline of 18 per cent.
Alcohol sales have also declined recently in the United States, so this is not a Canada-only phenomenon.
Possible contributing factors
There are many possible contributors to consider, some of which overlap with one another:
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Increasing health concerns? Increased concern about health effects of alcohol, including from socially “moderate” levels of use, may be contributing to reduced use and changing social norms.
Scientifically, the notion of purported benefits from moderate drinking, particularly of wine, has been largely debunked. Canada’s Guidance on Alcohol and Health found increased risk of an alcohol-caused death at more than two drinks per week.
The recent U.S. Surgeon General’s report on alcohol and cancer highlighted the growing recognition that alcohol is causally related to seven types of human cancer including cancers of the breast, colon, liver and esophagus. Interest in the sober-curious movement and participation in abstinence periods such as Dry January may partly reflect health concerns.
Inflation and affordability? Inflation has been relatively high in Canada over the past five years, and the affordability of staples like food has declined. Alcohol is a price-responsive good; most people purchase more of it when they have more disposable income, and less when they are trying to spend less.
Post-COVID normalization? Canadian alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the factors behind that increase are not fully understood, it is logical that consumption would decline with the waning of the pandemic. However, consumption has now fallen well below pre-COVID levels.
Immigration? In recent years, Canada has experienced a large influx of immigrants, many of whom come from countries with lower alcohol use than Canada, like India. While this would contribute to the decline in per-capita use (the average consumption among all people, including non-drinkers), total alcohol sales have also declined, indicating lower consumption among those who are not recent immigrants.
The rise of no- and low-alcohol products? There has been an explosion of no- and low-alcohol products, particularly for beer. But it’s unclear to what extent this category is replacing traditional alcohol sales versus adding to overall consumption. Stay tuned.
Cannabis substitution for alcohol? Research evidence about whether cannabis use is associated with more or less alcohol use (that is, whether people are using cannabis in addition to alcohol or using cannabis instead of alcohol) is mixed. But cannabis use has been increasing in Canada for some time, and even the 2018 legalization of cannabis for recreational use occurred during a time when alcohol sales were stable or increasing, so this is unlikely to be an important contributor.
Reduced use by youth? Although still common across North America, the prevalence of alcohol use among youth has declined over the past decade. Since drinking trajectories tend to persist with age, average consumption would decline over time as yesterday’s youth become a progressively larger share of the adult population.
Boycott of U.S. alcohol products? This is not a major contributor. The boycott of U.S. alcohol products came several years after alcohol sales began to decline. Furthermore, there are many non-U.S. product alternatives across all alcoholic beverage types and price ranges.
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Increased use of GLP-1 agonist medications? The use of GLP-1 agonists such as Ozempic to treat obesity and diabetes has mushroomed. These medications are now used by approximately three million Canadians adults.
In addition to reducing interest in eating, these medications also reduce interest in alcohol, and are being studied to treat alcohol use disorders. Although the population effect is not fully understood, their widespread use and impacts on consumption may be contributing to alcohol declines among middle-aged and older adults.
Possible impact of the decline
Over time, reductions in consumption should translate into gains for public health and savings for the health-care system and taxpayers, as alcohol-related costs exceed tax revenues. While reductions in alcohol sales adversely affect alcohol-related industries, reallocating dollars spent on alcohol benefits other sectors of the economy.
Ironically, adopting minimum pricing policies for alcohol could both improve public health and increase industry revenues by implementing what amounts to government-sponsored price collusion at the low end of the alcohol market, where profit margins are otherwise low.
Finally, although there has been a clear trend towards lower alcohol use in recent years, future sales may stabilize or reverse course. It remains to be seen whether the current trend is a long-term development or a fleeting one.
Timothy Naimi receives funding from: BC government; Health Canada; SSHRC (Canadian federal government)
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
