Like a lot of Canadians, Jorge Aranda stopped coming to the United States this year. "I don't want to pretend that everything's OK," he tells Axios.
Why it matters: Many international travelers say they're put off by tariffs, the Trump administration's anti-foreigner rhetoric and aggressive immigration enforcement, leading to a tourism slump that's dragging on local economies.
The big picture: International air travel to the U.S. is declining this year: down 7% from 2024, according to an Axios analysis of U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
- The U.S. could see 8.2% fewer international arrivals in 2025, per a forecast last month from travel research firm Tourism Economics — overseas visits would be well below 2019 levels, they said.
Zoom in: Canadians in particular are steering clear — visits from our northern neighbors are down 25% year to date, according to Tourism Economics' report.
- In Las Vegas, where travel is already slumping amid an economic slowdown, there's been an 18% decline in flights this year from Canadian carriers, per data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
- Canada is the city's largest source of international visitors.
In Minnesota, which relies heavily on Canadian tourism, 62% of tourism businesses are expecting fewer travelers from their northern neighbor, per a recent survey.
- Buffalo, which sits on the border, launched a marketing campaign to lure tourists back. (Tag line: "Buffalo Loves Canada.")
Yes, but: Other U.S. cities are seeing tourism gains.
- New York City is expecting a slight increase in tourists this year overall to 64.7 million visitors — up from 64.5 million in 2024 — even with an anticipated 19% decline in Canadian visitors.
- Chicago also is up year-to-date from 2024, thanks to visitors from Colombia, Spain, Japan and Italy, said Kristen Reynolds, head of Choose Chicago, the city's tourism arm.
- New international flights into Denver's airport have lead to an increase in foreign arrivals there.
- And travel from Mexico to the U.S. is holding up. Mexicans are more accustomed to having a fractious relationship with the U.S., says Sonnet Frisbie, deputy head of political intelligence at Morning Consult.
- "I think they felt less betrayed," says Frisbie, who is tracking this reputation data.
The other side: "Foreign visitors to the United States spent nearly $127 billion on U.S. travel and tourism-related goods in the first six months of 2025 – a record high thanks to President Trump's efforts to Make America Beautiful & Safe Again for Americans and foreign visitors alike," a White House spokesman tells Axios.
Where it stands: Some potential travelers are reading news reports of tourists detained by ICE and feeling afraid.
- And Canadians are offended by the president's talk of making their country the 51st state.
For some, it's both. "I thought we were friends, and you're talking about annexing us?" says Aranda, a 48-year-old Canadian citizen who was born in Mexico.
- Typically, he visits at least a couple times a year, but now Aranda is not coming to the U.S. partly out of "spite," he says, echoing comments Axios heard from other Canadians. He says he also fears for his safety after reading about other tourists getting mistakenly detained.
- His extended family — which includes Canadians, Americans and Mexicans — was planning a gathering near Grand Canyon this summer. They wound up at an Airbnb in Quebec instead.
- When his American employer offered to send him to an industry conference in Las Vegas this year, he passed.
Carrie Shepherd and Alayna Alvarez contributed reporting.
