A common sentiment I’ve heard expressed around Las Vegas during the past few days has been “I want Manny Pacquiao to win on Saturday night but I’m going with Floyd Mayweather”.
While boxing writers, and journalists in general, are not supposed to have favourites, human nature kicks in when it comes to picking a winner. The trick is to get the mind to control the heart, much as it is for the fighters when under pressure – and that is where I think Mayweather may have a slight edge. It could be the defining one.
“I always find a way to win” has been his mantra in 47 fights, and in only a handful of them has Mayweather looked seriously inconvenienced, even though most of his troubles arrived in isolated moments, not when under a sustained and quality attack.
Almost certainly Pacquiao will give him the biggest test of his career because, as with all fighters, his boxing DNA will define how he fights – and that is throwing, sharp, fast punches at angles and in bunches.
His whole philosophy is based on attack, which is why it was curious to hear Mayweather say the other day he thought Pacquaio was more dangerous going backwards; that was either a slip of the tongue or a bit of deliberate mischief, because the Filipino’s gearbox is almost permanently on over-drive and carrying him into the battle zone.
And that is where Mayweather wants him. The art of counterpunching is sometimes misunderstood: all boxers are counterpunchers to some extent, because they answer incoming assaults with their own. It is in the timing of the return fire that they differ, and no one in modern boxing picks his moment better than Mayweather.
Freddie Roach rightly observes that Mayweather’s feet have slowed but his brain has not, and it is umbilically linked to his fists, most potently the right one, which he keeps cocked near his chin, his left used as a set-up spear as well as a shield. Mayweather’s counter right hand (as well as a lead) invariably goes straight down the pipe and with a five-inch reach advantage he will be able to use it across Pacquiao’s southpaw lead to hurtful effect if his opponent has too many reckless moments.
The likelihood of Pacquiao making the same mistake he did against Juan Manuel Márquez and walking on to the sort of right hand that left him face down and out is slim – mainly because of that first devastating incident. He is an impetuous fighter, not a stupid one.
Nevertheless, there will be moments in the fight when Mayweather lands the long, teeth-rattling right. If there are enough of them Pacquiao will feel the accumulative effect, no question.
Mayweather’s key weapon has been his famous left shoulder, scrunched up to obscure the target as he leans back and away from orthodox right hands over the top, frustrating his opponent into making mistakes for which the punishment is that right hand. This time he will have to adjust for Pacquiao’s southpaw launching pad but he has done it before, and Zab Judah has been prepping him for weeks in sparring.
Both fighters say they have game plans. I suspect they will be the ones they have always employed with minor adjustments, and I think that after 12 rounds Mayweather will be relieved and overjoyed to discover his strategy was the more effective.
