The cost to fill up your car will probably climb soon — and the oil price spike over Iran tensions is only one reason.
Why it matters: Gasoline is the most visible energy expense for many people. That makes it politically important, too.
- President Trump is fond of touting what are now pretty modest prices in much of the country.
The big picture: Oil prices are jumping this week as traders digest the risk that a U.S. strike on Iran could disrupt supply.
- That will eventually filter down to retail gasoline.
The intrigue: Other, more mundane forces are also going to start putting upward pressure on gasoline, fuel market analysts say.
- Refiners will soon start the switch to so-called summer blends, which don't vaporize as easily, to meet air pollution requirements.
- It's more expensive and time-consuming to create fuel that's resistant to evaporation, explains Aixa Diaz, an AAA spokesperson.
What's next: The seasonal cost rise typically starts at the end of February or early March as "spring break season kicks off and refineries start production of summer-blend gasoline," Diaz said via email.
- And fuel analyst Tom Kloza flags some conditions at specific refineries affecting wholesale costs.
- They include recent maintenance at an HF Sinclair refinery in the Pacific Northwest and refinery problems in the Great Plains region.
What they're saying: Patrick De Haan of the market tracking firm GasBuddy says the Iran situation is currently adding a few cents per gallon.
- He notes that inventories of winter blends are "well above average" right now, which is "temporarily diluting the impact" of the increase.
- But De Haan, the firm's head of petroleum analysis, said the change to summer blends; more people driving after winter; and typical pre-summer maintenance work reducing activity at refineries are together a powerful force.
- This "retail seasonality" typically adds somewhere between 25 cents and 65 cents per gallon between late February and April-May.
Yes, but: As you can see above, average pump prices remain low amid ample gasoline stockpiles, though they vary a lot by region.
- "The good news is we're seeing the cheapest gas prices for this time of year since 2021, so even as prices go up as they usually do in the spring, we're starting from a lower point," Diaz said.
What we're watching: The role of electricity bills — which have been rising — and gasoline in the midterm elections.
- And whatever happens next in Iran — nothing, a limited strike, a wider conflict, or who knows — will keep swaying oil markets.
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