NEW DELHI: The collapse of the suspension bridge at Morbi in Gujarat seems to have delayed the announcement of the state’s election schedule. However, if the assembly election has to be held along with Himachal Pradesh, the Election Commission (EC) must declare the poll schedule for the state by November 6.
EC held a press conference on October 14 to announce the election schedule for Himachal Pradesh. But it did not declare the poll dates for Gujarat. Except for 2017, EC has been announcing the poll schedule of the two states on the same day in every assembly election.
Talking to media persons, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said various factors were considered, including convention, gap in the qualifying dates and weather. He said factors like weather were important in Himachal Pradesh, especially in the upper reaches where snowing takes place. “The commission goes by convention in elections. We followed the last convention," he added.
2022 Himachal Pradesh election
As per the election schedule announced on October 14 by EC for Himachal Pradesh, polling will take place on November 12.
According to norms, there should be a minimum of 28 days’ gap between the date of announcement of election schedule and the polling date. In the case of Himachal Pradesh, this gap is 29 days, a day more than the minimum gap.
The counting of votes for the hilly state would take place on December 8 for the 68-member assembly.
Normally, there should be a maximum four days’ gap between the date of voting and counting day. It is for the ballot boxes to reach the counting centres.
In the case of Himachal Pradesh, the gap between the polling date (November 12) and the date of counting (December 8) is 26 days. This is inordinately a lengthy gap and has obviously been kept to accommodate the Gujarat assembly election.
2017 Himachal Pradesh election
Five years ago, during the last election, EC had held the press conference on October 12 when it departed from convention and announced the dates only for Himachal Pradesh.
The voting took place on November 9 that year. There was a minimum stipulated gap of 28 days between the day the election schedule was announced and the date on which voting took place.
Counting of votes for Himachal Pradesh was held on December 18. Instead of the normal four days’ gap between the polling day and the counting date, there was a lengthy gap of 39 days. It was just to accommodate the Gujarat elections.
2017 Gujarat election
EC held the press conference on October 25 to announce the poll schedule for the 182-member Gujarat assembly. It was 13 days after EC had held the press conference for Himachal Pradesh.
Gujarat went to polls in two phases.
The first phase of polling took place on December 9. There was a long 45 days’ gap, instead of a minimum of 28 days, between the press conference day and the voting date.
The second phase of voting for Gujarat assembly took place on December 14. There was a gap of five days between the two phases of voting.
Also, there was a gap of 50 days between the day the press conference was held and the voting date.
2012 Himachal and Gujarat elections
The EC had announced elections to both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat on the same day in 2012. In Himachal Pradesh, election was held in one phase on November 4. The election in Gujarat was held in two phases, on December 13 and December 17. The results for both states were announced on December 20.
2022 Gujarat election
Even as per the convention set in 2017, the election schedule for Gujarat is running quite late.
If EC had strictly followed the last election’s convention, it should have held the press conference to announce the poll schedule for Gujarat on October 27 – that is 13 days after the press conference on Himachal Pradesh, as in 2017.
The first phase of polling should have been held on December 11 and the second phase on December 16.
Counting of votes should have taken place on December 21.
Departure from convention
However, election in Gujarat cannot be held on December 11 and December 16 as the counting date has been fixed for December 8.
By counting backwards from December 8, the second phase of election can be held on December 4. This would maintain the four days’ gap between the last date of polling and the counting of votes.
The first phase of polling can be held on December 1, by reducing the four days’ gap between two phases of polling to three as an exception.
However, these dates can be adhered to only if EC holds a press conference on November 3.
Otherwise, EC would have to hold Gujarat election in just one phase.
As the counting date is December 8, the single phase election cannot be held after December 4.
And, in order to maintain the minimum gap of 28 days between the announcement of the election schedule and the date of polling, the latest date on which EC can hold a press conference for a single phase election in Gujarat would be November 6.
But by doing so, EC would be departing from the convention set in 2017.
The other option
In 2017, the then CEC Achal Kumar Joti had attributed the departure of convention to the Gujarat floods.
Collectors of as many as 13 districts were busy in relief and rehabilitation exercises in the wake of the flood. They would have had to be shifted to make poll-related arrangements had the election schedule been announced. In the process, relief and rehabilitation works would have been hampered.
Though there is no flood in Gujarat this year, the tragic incident of the collapse of the suspension bridge in Morbi took place on October 30.
EC might cite this to postpone the Gujarat election to a later date.
The term of the Gujarat assembly ends on February 18, 2023, while the term of the Himachal assembly will end on January 8, 2023.
In his press conference incumbent CEC Rajiv Kumar had hinted that the Gujarat election might even be held in January-February 2023. He said there was a gap of 40 days between the end of the assemblies of the two states. According to rules, it should be at least 30 days so that one result did not impact the other, he said.
However, there is one major problem in holding the Gujarat election next year. EC would come under major fire from the opposition parties and it would be accused of buckling under pressure from the Narendra Modi government, which has been on the defensive ever since the Morbi bridge collapse had taken place.
While 13 districts were affected in 2017 due to floods, not even a complete district has got affected due to the bridge collapse.
Moreover, a question would arise that if at all the Gujarat election had to be held next year, why the counting day for the Himachal Pradesh election was fixed at 26 days instead of the normal four days.
It was really an unenviable situation for EC.
