In the last 20 years, the desire to have children has fallen sharply in France, according to a study published by the French Institute for Demographic Studies last week – and the country's birth rate is at its lowest since the end of the Second World War.
"People now prefer smaller families, and fertility will probably continue to fall," Milan Bouchet-Valat, a sociologist and co-author of the study, told French news agency AFP.
Using data from two major national surveys carried out in 2005 and 2024, the study reveals a fundamental trend: younger generations want fewer children than their elders.
Among women under 30, the average number of children desired has fallen from 2.5 to 1.9 in 20 years.
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Two-child maximum
Large families too are losing ground, with just 29 percent of French people thinking that having three or more children is the ideal number – compared with half in 1998.
The ideal number of children per family is now 2.3 on average, compared with 2.7 in 1998. The two-child family is still the norm, with 65 percent of 18-49 year olds now considering two the ideal number, but this is now seen as a maximum, rather than a minimum.
Among young adults aged 18 to 29, the intention to have just one child, or none at all, outstrips that of having three or more. Only 10 percent of young men and 16 percent of young women want three children, while 20 percent and 14 percent respectively want to have just one.
This decline in the desire to have children is reflected in the country's birth rate, which last year was at its lowest since 1945 – with 663,000 births recorded.
Between 2014 and 2024 the fertility rate fell from two to 1.6 children per woman – still above the European Union average of 1.4.
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Fears for the future
This falling desire to have children is seen in people of all backgrounds, regardless of gender, level of education, occupation, country of birth or income.
The factors that influence this desire – or lack of – include fears over climate change and future prospects, and views on gender equality.
Egalitarian concepts of the roles of men and women are associated with a lower desire to have children, particularly among men – a link that didn't exist in the 2005 survey results. Men with more traditional views want more children, and are less likely to anticipate that parenthood will have an impact on their careers.
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"The price of professional inequality between women and men accentuates the fear of having children," Minister for Equality Aurore Bergé told TV channel France 2 last Wednesday, in reaction to the results. "What we need to do is guarantee women total freedom: to have or not to have children, and to be able to welcome them in the best possible conditions."
Meanwhile, 35 percent of those surveyed who said they were "very worried about future generations" in terms of the climate crisis, the future of democracy and economic prospects want fewer children than other respondents – and almost half of respondents aged 25–39 reported being "very" worried.
This article has been adapted from the original version in French.
