‘Bazball’ is an approach to batting in Test cricket championed by former New Zealand captain and current England head coach Brendon ‘Baz’ McCullum. It involves taking chances more frequently than is the norm, aiming to score as quickly as possible at the cost of losing wickets more often.
‘Bazball’ has dominated the conversation in the 2023 Ashes, and in Test cricket more generally. So much so that after the fourth Test at Old Trafford was drawn due to rain, ECB chair Richard Thompson suggested that the rain rules should be modified. Thompson said he would speak to the ICC chair and make him understand that England has “elevated [Test cricket] and reinvented the way [it] has been played.”
And yet, Australia retained the Ashes despite losing almost 500 Test wickets worth of quality and experience to injury one and half Tests into the series. Why did ‘Bazball’ fail to regain the Ashes at home? Part of the answer is that this is a great Australian side led by a fast-bowler who will almost certainly finish as one of Australia’s greatest-ever bowlers. The other part of the answer has to do with an essential limit to the competitive advantage ‘Bazball’ offers because it is an approach, for the most part, to batting.
Test series are typically won by the superior bowling side. This is almost always the one which delivers a higher percentage of deliveries with greater control and quality than the opposition. This requires quality and depth. Having one truly great bowler supported by three or four average bowlers is almost always worse than having three or four very good bowlers. As is shown in Table 2, England has had the better attack in every series since McCullum took the England job, except the 2023 Ashes.
But first, consider the average total per 10 wickets for each team in Test cricket since the start of the Covid pandemic, as shown in Table 1. This period is divided into two parts to highlight the ‘Bazball’ era record.
The period from July 2020 to May 2022 included two away series for England — India (2021) and Australia (2021-22) — in which the batting conditions were very difficult. If these are excluded, England’s average 10-wicket total in 17 pre-‘Bazball’ Tests starting in July 2020 is 330 all out in 105.0 overs. On those two tours, England averaged 200 all out in 71.0 overs.
In the ‘Bazball’ era, England has averaged 391 in 81.0 overs per 10 wickets — the promised trade-off of quicker runs for more frequent dismissal is evident in this record.
How do we tell which bowling attack is superior? Traditionally, record-keeping in cricket has been limited to measuring outcomes — runs, wickets, wides, no balls and the like. A novel measure devised by ESPNCricinfo considers whether or not the batter is in control of a delivery.
Readers should note that control classifies deliveries — either the batter is in control or not. Edges (inner or outer), plays and misses (or swings and misses), getting hit on the pad, and catches off the bat’s middle are considered not-in-control. All not-in-control deliveries are not equally likely to result in dismissal. The control measurement is not an expected dismissal estimate.
The bowler tries to force the batter into a not-in-control response, in ESPNCricinfo’s terminology (or a false shot, in cricket parlance). A false shot is more likely when a batter attempts an attacking shot.
Testing the ‘Bazball’ proposition
The theory behind the ‘Bazball’ approach is that being less selective about attempting an attacking shot is more efficient than being more selective (i.e. it will produce more runs). Control offers a way to test this proposition. Batters who are defensive — i.e. more selective in their attacking shots — play false shots less often. But they will also score slower. The point of batting, though, is to score runs. If a bowling attack is better than the opposition’s attack, it will concede fewer runs per false shot.
As shown in Table 2, in every series in the ‘Bazball’ era, whether it is the 2022 home season in which England faced New Zealand (3 Tests), India (1 Test) and South Africa (3 Tests), or its tours of Pakistan and New Zealand, England’s bowlers conceded fewer runs per false shot than the opposition’s. In other words, the English attack was deeper and better than the opposition’s in the prevalent conditions, by 19 to 30%.
In the 2023 Ashes, Australia matched England’s attack, keeping the host’s advantage down to about 6%, despite losing Nathan Lyon midway through the second Test. This is a testament to the quality of the Australian pace attack, even with Pat Cummins losing four out of five tosses.
England managed 3.3 runs per false shot against Australia in this series, while the visitors managed 3.1 runs per false shot. England scored quicker, played false shots more often and also lost wickets more often. The rate at which false shots resulted in dismissal was marginally (6%) lower for England’s batters than it was for Australia’s. This could be put down to England forcing Australia to place more defensive fields than it normally would.
There is one last piece of this outline explaining why England did not regain the Ashes despite scoring at such speed. ‘Bazball’ motivates flatter pitches with lesser seam movement. This reduces the effectiveness of England’s greatest strength — its battery of seam bowlers.
It is a measure of England’s resources that it could call on the express pace of Mark Wood. The 2023 Ashes were Broad and Anderson’s most expensive home Ashes series. It was Broad’s most expensive Ashes home series since his first in 2009. Anderson’s five wickets cost him 85 runs apiece. Bowlers win Test matches and Test series. It is perhaps not efficient to prepare pitches for batters.
