Bill Belichick benefited from Tom Brady’s greatness for two decades, just as Brady benefited from Belichick’s genius for the same amount of time. Now that Brady is firmly ensconced in Tampa, Belichick has the ability to make a gigantic paradigm shift at the game’s most important position should he choose to do so.
Before the news came down Sunday that Cam Newton had signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal with Belichick’s team, the Patriots’ quarterback depth chart consisted of Jarrett Stidham and … well, Jarrett Stidham. That’s the same Jarrett Stidham who was selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft and has thrown four regular-season passes, completing two to his own guys and one to Jets safety Jamal Adams. Adams returned that interception for a 61-yard touchdown, which means that Stidham has thrown more touchdown passes for the Jets than he has for the Patriots.
That, friends, was the walking definition of a low-yield return on investment. Unless the Pats are #TankingForTrevor, that ain’t gonna feed the bulldog.
You could not have expected Belichick to stand pat on that, no matter how much the coaching staff allegedly likes Stidham’s potential. There isn’t anybody alive who knows and understands more about the history of football strategy than the Patriots’ head coach. He’s seen every trend come down the pike since he was a special assistant for Ted Marchibroda’s Baltimore Colts in 1975. Belichick’s football library is legendary for its depth and breadth. And most recently, he’s seen an NFL in which, in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency, four of the league’s top five quarterbacks are black, all of them are mobile, and each of them brings different characteristics to his passing game.
It’s a remarkable (one might say overdue) definition of the current NFL, and given Belichick’s understanding of history and insistence on personnel diversity at all positions, Newton’s place on the roster is also a fascinating thought exercise to wonder how his Patriots will look going all the way from Brady’s stationary brilliance to an offense in which a Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson might be his most valuable instrument. And in fact, the Patriots were in on Jackson in 2018 to a point.
Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, was a free agent after two injury-riddled seasons that had the Panthers moving on to Teddy Bridgewater. Given the inability of teams to get precise physicals in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Newton had to wait a while to prove his health — and his worth — to a new team.
More specifically, Belichick wouldn’t have an issue remembering Newton’s worth. He had all kinds of things to say about it in the early parts of the 2017 season.
The Patriots had just come off a 36-33 win over the Texans in which then-rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to running eight times for 41 yards. Brady’s 25-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Brandin Cooks with 23 seconds remaining was the deciding score, and the Pats had to feel a bit lucky to get out of Gillette Stadium with a win. Next up were Newton’s Panthers, and on the Wednesday before that game, Belichick was asked about preparing from one mobile quarterback with explosive play potential to another.
“I think when you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks — guys that are tough to handle, can throw, run, make good decisions. I would put [Newton] at the top of the list. Not saying there aren’t a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say of all the guys we played recently in the last couple of years, I think he’s the hardest guy to [defend]. He makes good decisions, can run. He’s strong. He’s hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game in 2013. I would put him at the top of the list. I’m not saying the other guys aren’t a problem, because they are. But he’s maybe public enemy No. 1.”
Newton proved the title true in a 33-30 Panthers win by completing 22 of 29 passes for 316 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, rushing eight times for 44 yards and another touchdown. The Patriots’ usually disciplined defense had no consistent answers for Newton’s brilliance on that day.
Which brings us to the primary arguments against a Newton-Patriots pairing: Newton’s health and the scheme fit.
Regarding Newton’s health, there’s no way for any team to know for sure where he is in his progress from shoulder and foot injuries until he can take a physical and work out in a team facility. And we have no clue when that might be. But based on what I saw of Newton’s tape early last season before that foot injury shut him down, there’s still a lot he has to offer.
On to scheme fit, and the myth that a quarterback of Newton’s specific skill set couldn’t handle the complexity of a Patriots passing game. One of the primary arguments for any other free agent quarterback’s hypothetical inclusion on the Patriots’ roster is that Dalton “understands the system.” But if that’s the bar you want anybody to clear, Newton has the decided advantage, while Dalton should head to Jacksonville, where his former Bengals head coach, Jay Gruden, is the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator. Dalton and Gruden worked different strains of the West Coast offense, which is a different deal — not always in play design, but definitely in structure and terminology.
Meanwhile, from 2012 through 2019, under multiple offensive coordinators, Newton worked different iterations of the Erhardt-Perkins offense the Patriots have used through Belichick’s entire tenure in Foxborough. Concepts change to a point, but the overall ideas, route packages and verbiage would be more natural for Newton to pick up. This is important because if you’ve got an abbreviated install period due to obvious ancillary factors that are shortening every team’s ability to prepare with their new players, and your new quarterback understands where his third read is on “1 Out — 147 Z Option XQ Sneak,”and how the second receiver is going to run his option route based on whether the middle of the field is closed or open, you are definitely ahead of the game.
On to Newton’s 2017 performance against the Patriots and what it might tell us about his future.
Newton’s interception came late in the first quarter, and it was not his finest moment. Here, he has wide receiver Devin Funchess wide-open with YAC space on a simple screen, but he shoots instead for the big play downfield to receiver Damiere Byrd. Problem: Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler and defensive back Eric Rowe have Byrd bracketed, and Butler comes away with the easy pick. Newton does have a mild rogue gene that leads him to throws with a low success rate, and this is an illustrative example.
But the touchdown passes showed a quarterback in full command of a highly-functioning offense, and some brilliant designs from then-offensive coordinator Mike Shula. On this 28-yard touchdown pass to running back Fozzy Whitaker, Newton uses the defensive shift, adjusting to running back Christian McCaffrey motioning from left to right, to give the easy opening to his back, and the screen is set up perfectly. This is not an unfamiliar design in the Patriots’ playbook — just ask James White.
This 39-yard completion to receiver Kelvin Benjamin combines excellent design and a good throw from Newton. Funchess takes the top off the coverage to the right side with a deep over route, which gives Benjamin the opportunity to pick up yards after catch as the Patriots play run-and-chase off of bunch formation confusion.
On this quick pass to Funchess, where the receiver sells the outside step to run an inside route, you can see Newton busting two of the stranger myths about his game — that he doesn’t have a command of short and intermediate passing structure, and that he can’t throw with anticipation.
Since Newton scored the 50th rushing touchdown of his career in this game, we might as well show that, too. Put a pin in this run-fake concept for the next section of this article.
The Patriots have never run an entire offense with a quarterback with Newton’s skill set, but there is a fascinating — though small — sample size of something similar. We have to go back to Week 3 of the 2016 season, when Brady was serving a four-game suspension for his part in the Deflategate scandal, then-backup Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2 against the Dolphins, and New England put rookie Jacoby Brissett on the field with an interesting selection of designed runs and option packages. The Texans couldn’t stop biting on the run fakes, Brissett was able to handle a rudimentary passing playbook, and the Patriots won, 27-0.
When you look at the designed runs the Panthers created for Newton over the years, and this 13-yard run in the first quarter … well, it doesn’t take much to superimpose the fit.
And this 27-yard Brissett touchdown run, which was created by Houston’s defense dying on the run fake to LeGarrette Blount — who gained 105 yards and scored two touchdowns on 24 carries … well, once again, we are looking at a similarly explosive run potential.
So. A similar overall passing game structure, which would lead to minimal ramp-up time when minimal ramp-up time will be of primary importance as the 2020 season does begin. A coaching staff that was able to create a complementary offense on the fly for a running quarterback. The most schematically curious head coach in the game, who has acknowledged Newton’s greatness. It may not be the most conventional fit, given our memories of how New England’s offense worked with Brady at the helm for two decades, but there are a ton of reasons that a healthy Cam Newton could run New England’s offense right back into the playoffs — albeit with a very different look.
Public Enemy No. 1? Cam Newton might turn out to be Bill Belichick’s new best friend.
