AUSTIN — As a light mist started to envelop Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium in the final minute and Texas was kneeling out the final minute of a 27–17 victory over No. 3 Texas A&M, the jumbotron cameras caught a fan holding up his phone to the rest of the crowd.
On it was a simple message in literal black and white: 11–1. After entering Black Friday’s matchup undefeated and hoping to put an end to 14 years of misery in the rivalry, this is how Aggies end the regular season.
As the surprisingly raucous crowd of 103,632 fans—at least those who weren’t wearing maroon—rose to their feet in applause, it was an apt picture of the current College Football Playoff picture.
One where losses matter just as much—if not more—as the wins do.
The selection committee has decreed it to be so in 2025, a sharp departure from years past. It has shown the world three weeks of data in the form of its Top 25 rankings and failed to reward teams for big wins. Instead it has slapped the wrists of those who lose to teams they shouldn’t.
It’s why there is a conundrum with this year’s playoff between Miami and Notre Dame. It’s why Texas A&M entered Friday as a lock to make the field and host a first-round game (at the worst) and why both Oregon and Texas Tech will each garner the most favorable paths to a semifinal should they end the season with just a lone blemish.
Flying in the face of this evidence from the past few weeks, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian decided to cast off such misguided thinking in his team’s candidacy to make the bracket.
Forget those three losses the Longhorns picked up as they went from No. 1 in the preseason to the outer reaches of the at-large bubble.
Never mind that they lost in the Swamp to a Florida team which won’t make a bowl game or that they were blown out just last week by Georgia between the hedges to cement disappointment this season.
SEC championship game scenarios
Instead, focus on what this Texas team filled with talent is capable of in terms of its ceiling in lieu of judging its based on its floor.
“I think we’re absolutely a playoff team,” Sarkisian said with a presidential tone. “We’re the first team since the 2019 national champion LSU team to beat three top 10–ranked teams in the same season during the regular season. So, let’s just chew on that for a second.”
Sure Sark, let’s do that.
These Longhorns beat Oklahoma, which is currently in the playoff ranked No. 8. Left unsaid is that Texas did so in Sooners starting quarterback John Mateer’s first game back from hand surgery.
It’s also accurate that they beat another playoff aspirant in Vanderbilt, which may win 10 games for the first time ever but likely will miss the field by a decent margin unless true chaos envelops rivalry weekend.
And yes, it’s also the case that these Horns beat a previously undefeated Texas A&M to earn the best victory of any CFP contender. It also ensures they will finish the regular season as the only program with three wins over teams ranked in the top 10 at kickoff.
“We’ve played the No. 1, the No. 3 and No. 4–ranked teams in the country. We went on the road to Ohio State in Week 1. And lost to them in a one-score game,” Sarkisian said. “More importantly, what message do we want to send to the head coaches and the athletic directors around the country? You want us not to schedule Ohio State, because if we’re a 10–2 team right now, this isn’t a discussion, we’re in the playoffs. But we were willing to go up there and play that game.
“I surely don’t think we want to punish us for doing that, because what are we all going to do? We’re all going to get out of those games.”
The committee’s job is not to send such messages. It is simply to rank the very best teams.
College Football Playoff selection committee Top 25
They can, and will, be doing plenty of that early next week and figure to spend plenty of time debating Sarkisian’s team much more closely. The Longhorns limited the Aggies to just 10 points through three quarters and forced two late turnovers of a hobbled QB Marcel Reed (20 of 32, 180 yards, two interceptions) to seal the result that offered a bit of salvation to what was previously a lost year.
“You can say we lost to Florida. Well, the team that played for the national championship last year lost to Northern Illinois at home,” Sarkisian said. “I have no doubt in my mind that the team we have in that locker room downstairs is a playoff football team and worthy of an opportunity to play for a national championship.”
Both points are debatable. Sure, we’ve seen Texas knock off its two top rivals by multiple scores and keep Vanderbilt at arm’s length despite the three-point final score.
We’ve also seen Texas barely muster a first down against Ohio State—the type of team it will need to beat in the playoff—and struggle to put away UTEP not long after. The Longhorns fell flat on their faces in the Swamp and needed overtime (and a little luck) to escape games against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
“I feel like we’ve come a long way. We played a lot of good teams,” said Arch Manning, who completed six of his final seven passes to finish with 179 yards through the air and a game-sealing 35-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter. “I really hope this thing works out because we’re trending in the right direction.”
In winning six of their last seven, that would typically be a winning case to be made when it comes to inclusion in the playoff. Except this one, it seems, where the number to the right side of the dash carries greater weight.
“We’re 9–3 and we lose Week 1 to No. 1 [Ohio State],” said safety Michael Taaffe. “If we’re 10–2 and have two losses in the SEC, it’s a no-brainer. I don’t think the committee is going to punish us for losing to the No. 1 team.”
Come next week though, the committee has shown every indication that it will do just that.
Until then, Texas can bask in extending its rival’s misery in this series beyond the 5,483 days it currently spans. It can willingly keep believing it has shown enough to leapfrog No. 10 Alabama and No. 9 Notre Dame to make the field.
But such victories are not the ultimate measure of success in this norm-shattering 2025 season—only avoiding those pesky losses.
When the Longhorns find out their fate in two weeks, they would be wise to remember that before one last disappointment caps off a year full of them.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why Beating Texas A&M Won’t Help Texas’s Chances at College Football Playoff Bid.
