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The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
Jen Melocco

Why Australian home prices continue to rise despite interest rate increases

Borrowers may have given a sigh of relief as interest rates were put on hold in the Reserve Bank's last meeting for 2023, but those looking to buy a home are still facing a challenging time.

Despite 13 interest rate rises since May 2022, property prices are back on the rise.

Home prices reached a new record high in November rising 8.1 per cent since they reached a floor in January this year with the median home price nationally now at $825,564 according to CoreLogic.

People have been sitting on their hands and been unwilling to put their home up for sale as interest rates rise says Ray White Commercial Head of Research, Vanessa Rader.

ANZ meanwhile have also pointed to prices continuing to rise.

It has predicted a rise of 10 per cent for homes nationally by the end of this year, 6 per cent in 2024 and 5 per cent in 2025 in ANZ Research's latest housing update.

That is not what is usually expected when interest rates rise.

But it is the case this time as buyers and sellers pull back.

People have been sitting on their hands and been unwilling to put their home up for sale as interest rates rise according to Ray White Commercial Head of Research, Vanessa Rader.

"In terms of making a decision on whether or not people want to put their house on the market, or if they want to actually purchase that is what has been effected," Ms Rader said.

"So what we've seen as a result of the increase in interest rates is that of declining listing numbers."

She said more people coming into the country, along with a shortage of homes and few being built have added to pressure on prices.

Listings are expected to taper off over the holidays before rising next year according to LJ Hooker Group's Head of Research, Mathew Tiller.

"So when we had that mismatch between listings being down, not a lot of new supply being built, but there's still people looking to buy.

"That's why we've had that pressure upwards on prices, despite the fact that interest rates have increased."

And she doesn't see the situation changing significantly in 2024.

"A lot of people are saying we're just looking to survive 2024 It's going to be a bit of a holding pattern." she said.

While housing has been surprisingly resilient this year in terms of capital gains, interest rate increases have had some impact according to Head of Research at CoreLogic Eliza Owen.

"This is particularly the case where rate increases were unexpected," Ms Owen said.

"This was evident following the 'surprise' rate hike through June, and appears to have had some impact through November."

She said however that rates are not the only factor slowing housing market performance, with stretched affordability and more normalised stock levels also having an impact.

And what can be expected in the upcoming months?

Home prices are expected to stay high, while more homes could come on the market, despite rate rises over the past 18 months according to another expert.

Listings have been increasing in recent weeks but are expected to taper off over the holidays with an early return predicted for the market in 2024 according to LJ Hooker Group's Head of Research, Mathew Tiller,

"Solid and consistent price growth during the past 12 months means homeowners regardless of their circumstances are now more confident that they will achieve a good sales price," Mr Tiller said.

"So while there is a component of sellers who are doing it a little bit tough due to last month's rate rise, not everyone is listing because they are struggling to pay their mortgage.

"We are also seeing a lot of general sellers in the market - these are families looking to upsize or downsize as well as retirees who are moving forward with their plans because they feel assured and know there are buyers out there ready to purchase."

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