Arsenal continue to enjoy an ideal start to their Premier League season, with a huge 5-0 thrashing of Nottingham Forest on Sunday putting them back on track after a disappointing draw to Southampton. It means the Gunners have collected 31 points from a possible 36 available.
The win not only boosted their chances at the top, but the manner of it will have also given the side plenty of confidence going into their next run of games. "Big teams have to respond as quickly as possible," manager Mikel Arteta said after the victory against Forest.
"We did that after the disappointment of Thursday night. You don’t have time. We had one half-training session, and we had to be ready — not only physically but mentally - against a team that beat Liverpool and the pressure is on. We need to get used to that."
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The next major landmark in the season for Arsenal will be the break for the World Cup, creating a unique dilemma for all teams that could shake up the competition. However, the challenge remains similar, which is having to sustain a push for the title with plenty of rotation along the way.
That is something every side will face, however in the modern era where Manchester City have dominated English football, teams have had to go nearly perfect throughout their campaign to topple them. That appears to be the case once again due to the underlying numbers.
According to Understat data, their Expected Points (xPts) metric has the Citizens above the Gunners in the table for their performances this season. xPts calculates how many points a team could expect to earn from their performances so far on an average.
Pep Guardiola's side are expected to have roughly 28 points so far, which is an overperformance of one point so far as they currently sit on 29. Arsenal are also overperforming their numbers, though by far more as they are expected to have picked up roughly 26 points, coming in at an overperformance of five points earned as they sit on 31.
It suggests that the side's current rate isn't as sustainable, though they are still seen as the second best team in the league. It's worth noting that the sample size is still relatively small though, given each side hasn't played the full league once at this stage of the season.
It remains to be seen if they can continue to outperform their metrics as it could well be the best chance they have of winning the league.
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