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Tribune News Service
Tribune News Service
Politics
Tom Benning

Why are Texas Republicans in Congress bolting for the exits, and what does it mean for 2020?

WASHINGTON _ Four rapid-fire retirement announcements by Texas Republicans in Congress have prompted fresh soul-searching for a political party that's seeing its decadeslong dominance in the Lone Star State start to teeter.

While it's not that unusual for some lawmakers to hit the exits in any given election cycle, the "Texodus" label proffered these days by opportunistic Democrats may have some warrant.

Decisions of late by Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell, Rep. Will Hurd of San Antonio, Rep. Mike Conaway of Midland and Rep. Pete Olson of Sugar Land to not seek reelection next year come in the wake of five Texas Republicans last year also choosing to retire from Congress.

The obvious question: Why?

No one reason explains it all. But looming large is the fact that Texas' demographics continue to shift, particularly in the suburbs; that the GOP faces long odds to win back the House; and that President Donald Trump's reelection bid, for good or ill, is going to set the tone in 2020.

"The president's ability to change the narrative, to dominate the news cycle _ if you are a candidate right below him on the ballot, that brings in a whole series of variables that are uncomfortable for incumbents," said Todd Olsen, an Austin-based GOP political consultant.

Even with all of the congressional turnover _ and the prospect that more could be coming _ the GOP still sits in the catbird seat in Texas.

Republicans are favored to keep their streak of not losing a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and not losing a presidential battle there since 1976. Some conservatives are also bullish that the changing of the guard in Congress could bring new enthusiasm to help bolster their caucus.

But many in the GOP are taking note of the warning signs, even if they reject Democrats' taunts that the party is running scared.

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