Twenty percent of Romanians live outside the country – a total of 5 million people – and in the first round of the presidential election that concludes on Sunday, they voted overwhelmingly for far-right candidate George Simion, despite his Eurosceptic stance.
In the first round of the election on 4 May, the Romanian far right obtained even higher results outside its borders than it did within – Simion came first with more than 40 per cent of the vote in Romania, but took more than 60 per cent of the vote in the diaspora.
This was a repeat of the pattern seen during the cancelled presidential elections in Romania in 2024, the results of which were annulled by Romania's highest court, citing allegations of Russian interference. This time, the phenomenon was even more marked.
The diaspora vote is particularly favourable to the far right in the countries where Romanian expatriates are most numerous, namely in Western Europe.
Simion received more than 70 percent of the vote in Italy – home to the largest expat Romanian community, numbering more than 1 million – and in Germany and Spain.
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"Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt," explained Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean, a researcher at Sciences-Po and a specialist in Romania.
"But it's also a vote with socio-economic motivations, since in these Western societies, members of the Romanian diaspora are to be found among the working classes. Finally, it's also a vote about identity, since the integration of these people is sometimes difficult, and they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and their desire to return to Romania."
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East-west split
In Eastern European countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary, however, the pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan came first.
This result can be explained by Simion's hostile stance on sending military aid to Ukraine, and by the pro-Russian stance of Calin Georgescu, the candidate who topped the poll in November and whose legacy the leader of the Alliance for Romanian Unity claims to inherit.
The diaspora vote is therefore directly linked to the economic and geopolitical context of the countries where Romanian expatriates live.
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Nonetheless, it will be one of the keys to the second round, the outcome of which seems much more uncertain than opinion polls conducted before the 4 May vote might have suggested.
With the Romanian diaspora one of the largest in the world, the performance of the two candidates abroad on 18 May will play a crucial role in the outcome of the election.
This article was adapted from the original version in French.
