The LSU-Alabama game just means more. Well, for undefeated Alabama hosting undefeated SEC West rival LSU as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the nation in Week 11, a win for the Crimson Tide means more than a win for the Tigers.
There is more pressure on the Crimson Tide in this game for a couple reasons, one of which ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum explained Tuesday morning on Get Up.
Going into this highly anticipated matchup, LSU has wins against three teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time, so Alabama is its fourth top-10 opponent. On the other side, Alabama has played one team ranked at the time, and it was Texas A&M, which was No. 24 in the AP Poll in Week 7 before dropping out following that loss.
As Finebaum explained why this is a must-win game for Alabama — which is an early 6.5-point favorite — if it wants to contend for a national title again:
“Alabama must win this game! Nick Saban is the only coach in the last 80 years to win the national championship without winning his division. That dog is not going to hunt this time around. …
“This game is at home, and Alabama doesn’t have a good win, other than Texas A&M, which is not really a good win. So if LSU goes to Alabama — a place that nobody wins, they’ve lost three [home] games in the last [eight complete] years — if LSU loses, that’s still a really quality loss. If Alabama loses at home, forget about it.”
During its 2017-18 national championship season, Alabama lost to Auburn in the regular season, so it wasn’t the SEC West or conference champion that year. The Crimson Tide were obviously still invited to the College Football Playoff as the No. 4 seed, but Finebaum clearly thinks that scenario playing out again this year, should Alabama lose to LSU, is not going to happen.
Let’s look at the specifics in each team’s strength of record.
Through eight games as undefeated SEC West teams, LSU’s strength of record is No. 1 overall, while Alabama’s is No. 4 behind Penn State and Ohio State, per ESPN Stats & Info. Additionally, there is just a seven percent chance that an average top-25 team could be 8-0 against the Tigers’ schedule, and, while still unlikely, it’s a 15 percent chance for the Crimson Tide’s schedule.
The Tigers’ best nonconference game was also against then-No. 9 Texas, and the Crimson Tide’s best was Duke.
And when it comes to remaining strength of schedule, LSU is No. 29, while Alabama is No. 33, per ESPN’s FPI.
As we mentioned, Alabama currently has one win over a ranked opponent, while LSU beat the Longhorns, then-No. 7 Florida and then-No. 9 Auburn. Though Texas is now not ranked, Florida is No. 10 and Auburn is No. 12.
The Crimson Tide still have Auburn waiting for them at the end of the regular season — and LSU is likely done with ranked teams after Alabama — but, at least in the eyes of the selection committee, that might not be enough to overcome a loss this week that would keep Alabama out of the SEC championship game.
Finebaum saying “forget about it,” is a little strong at this point with about a month of the regular season left. But it does seem more likely this season that a loss could keep Alabama out of the playoff for the first time.
Looking at the bigger picture, how a one-loss Alabama team would compare with other one-loss playoff hopefuls is the focal point of this hypothetical scenario.
When it’s all over, would the Crimson Tide’s one-loss resume be stronger than that of a one-loss Pac-12 or Big 12 conference champ? What if the Big Ten is in a similar situation with a competitive one-loss team that didn’t win the conference?
If Alabama wins out and beats LSU in a close game in the process, there’s a good chance both teams get invited to the College Football Playoff. If Alabama loses to LSU, the playoff race could be blown wide open.
