Bat For Lashes: shame there's not a category for Best Hat. Photograph: Sarah Lee
It's the day you've been waiting for. If you're the sort of person who likes to spend the beginning of September moaning about the state of British music and how nobody's taking any chances any more and why oh why isn't there any dubstep on the list? In other words, the Nationwide Mercury Prize will be awarded tonight. Who will win? Below we offer our pros and cons on each of the shortlisters; reasons with which you may or may not agree. We'll also be live blogging from the event this evening.
Favourite Worst Nightmare, Arctic Monkeys
Pro It's an undeniably great album, everyone loves them, giving it to them two years running would be a huge story, not something prize judges are necessarily averse to.
Con They won it last year and it would seem unfair to give them it two years running. Plus their live shows this summer, in the UK at least, haven't quite built on the buzz.
Maths + English, Dizzee Rascal
Pro He's not a white indie boy, he doesn't play guitar and his album was both innovative and accessible at the same time.
Con Like the Monkeys, he's won it before. There's also a question as to whether this latest album, and in particular Dizzee's new, cleaner, more US-friendly rap style, is an improvement on the old or not. Lethal Bizzle may have stolen his thunder too.
The End of History, Fionn Regan
Pro Hardly anyone's heard of him so prize would be seen to big up new talent. Provides a quirky take on the singer-songwriter formula.
Con He's still a singer-songwriter a market that's decidedly saturated in 2007 and hardly the sound of now.
Pro He's original, has had chart success, huge critical acclaim and a massive fanbase (viz his NME Awards gong for best live show).
Con His vocal style - a car crash involving Ian Dury and Mike Skinner - is a decidedly Marmitian taste. Plus Panic Prevention can blur into one mockney mass, perhaps not enough stand-out tunes to claim the prize itself.
Myths of the Near Future, Klaxons
Pro Again a big following, just look at Reading/Leeds where they dragged thousands of teens into/onto ecstasy and that with one member hobbling on a crutch. An easily graspable concept, 'new rave', and arty lyrics, mean its possible for the panel to say 'it sums up 2007'.
Con There remains a whiff of the Emperor's New Clothes about them. Beyond their biggest tracks (it's hard to call them hits) - Golden Skans and Gravity's Rainbow - the album can seem a bit thin. Did it only sell so well because Polydor offered it at a heavy discount?
Voices of Animals and Men, the Young Knives
Pro Known to be heavily fancied by some of the judges, it would be a very Mercury wild card to give it to them.
Con Their smart, punchy songs can be an acquired taste (and they're not exactly photogenic either).
Pro Nearly a year after its release, people are still being drawn to this record and her buzz has been building accordingly. Plus it hits all the progressive buttons that the Mercury likes to press now and again.
Con Is there anything more to her than just Kate Bush + Bjork?
Pro Good back story (James Chapman spent years developing his sound in his bedroom before recording this futuristic sounding album on, gasp, analogue equipment!). Plus, his swooping orchestral sound bucks the trend of much of this year's nominees.
Con Fans of My Bloody Valentine and Spiritualized (which there surely are on the panel) may find all this a bit familiar.
Fantastic Playroom, New Young Pony Club
Pro More from the new rave category, though more dancey than indie so would go against accusations that the Mercury is only interested in you if you play guitars.
Con Ultimately, while Ice Cream has proven a big hit, the album was only popular with the dance press.
Basquiat Strings with Seb Rochford, Basquiat Strings
Pro Seb Rochford is another previous nominee. He got a nod in 2005 with Polar Bear and is very much the coming man of UK jazz.
Con While the panel might want to shed their pro-indie reputation, they'd never go this far.
Hats Off to the Buskers, the View
Pro Actually popular with the public - this album went straight to the top of the charts on its release in January. Again a big live following and have the kids and the cred (their Dryburgh history and accents) on their side.
Con Trad rock of the first order, the Mercury is meant to reward people who push boundaries (ie not this lot).
Pro Massively popular (after a slow start) and a critical success, her talent is undeniable. You could genuinely claim it's the best album on the list.
Con The circus has detracted from the record to such an extent that even an anticipated attendance at the awards (though in what state no-one knows) may be too late to save her. Plus the judges gave it to a big commercial hit last year so may need to go wonky this.
