On November 23, 2000, a rookie named Tom Brady threw his first pass for the New England Patriots. It was mop-up work at the end of a 34-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. With 4:04 left in the game, Brady threw an incomplete pass to J.R. Redmond, then an incomplete pass to Terry Glenn. Then, he completed his first two passes — first to Redmond, then to Rod Rutledge. And with that, he was off.
Brady’s last pass as a Patriot came with nine seconds left in New England’s 20-13 loss to the Titans in the wild-card round of the 2019 playoffs. It was not a success.
Between the completion to Redmond and the pick-six to Logan Ryan, it’s fair to say Brady did pretty well for himself. Six Super Bowl rings, nine Super Bowl appearances, NFL and Super Bowl MVP awards all over the place, and top 3 status in nearly every major statistical career category a quarterback can enjoy. He’s the greatest quarterback in NFL history and one of the best players ever, and on Tuesday morning, he announced that however long his career lasts from here, it will not be with the Patriots.
So now, for the first time since he benched and then cut Bernie Kosar in Cleveland, Bill Belichick has a real quarterback quandary on his hands. Who will replace the GOAT in Foxboro? Brady leaves his former team with $13.5 million in dead cap for the 2020 season, which sends the Patriots $1,542,417 over the 2020 salary cap, which means that Belichick and his staff will have to do some maneuvering elsewhere. Eventually, someone’s going to be the starting quarterback for the Patriots in 2020, and if all things are equal, here are the guys who have the best chance of doing so.
Philip Rivers
This picture of Bill Belichick and Philip Rivers is from January 2019, and a lot of water has flowed under the bridge in the past year. But before you cast this idea out as insanity, here’s a sample of what Belichick has had to say about the now former Chargers quarterback:
“He’s really good at everything. He’s very accurate on the deep ball, sees coverages well, sees matchups well, goes to the right place, throws the ball accurately. He’s a big, strong guy that can stand in the pocket and handle himself with guys around him. He does a good job at the line of scrimmage of controlling the offense, the protection. Obviously, the offense runs through him and he does a good job of getting the Chargers either into good plays or out of bad plays, however you want to look at it. Obviously, his durability and his consistency – I mean, the guy has started over 200 straight games. That’s pretty impressive. He does everything well.”
Would it make sense for the Patriots to take a chance on the idea that they can reclaim the relatively mistake-proof version of Rivers as they groom a younger quarterback over time? New England’s passing game is one of the league’s most complicated, and given Belichick’s admiration for Rivers’ acumen, there are stranger ideas.
Teddy Bridgewater
If Rivers goes elsewhere (Indianapolis seems to be the current favorite) or prices himself out of the New England equation, or Belichick doesn’t want to take a chance on a guy who threw more late-game interceptions than anybody else last season, there are other interesting options. One is Bridgewater, who was the guy before Lamar Jackson this decade to be drafted with the 32nd overall pick out of Louisville (by the Vikings in 2014). Bridgewater looked to have a similar effect on his NFL team at the start.
Bridgewater went to the Pro Bowl in the 2015 season, but then a severe knee injury cost him most of two seasons and led the Vikings to decline his fifth-year option. The Jets signed Bridgewater to a one-year deal in 2018 and wound up trading him to New Orleans, where he enjoyed a career resuscitation as Drew Brees’ backup, starting five games in 2019 when Brees was out with a thumb injury.
During that time, Bridgewater showed he had all the skills the Vikings once wanted, completing 67.9% of his passes for 1,384 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Saints won each of Bridgewater’s starts, and he proved that he has overcome an injury that would have been career-ending in previous eras. Moreover, Bridgewater has proven that with Shawn Watson in college, or Norv Turner in Minnesota, or with Sean Payton in New Orleans, he can pick up and execute complex, NFL-style passing systems at a very high level. It’s not known how much Bridgewater’s past injury status will limit his market, but this would be a very compelling match.
Jacoby Brissett
The Patriots selected Brissett in the third round of the 2016 draft out of North Carolina State, and traded him to the Colts in September of 2017 for receiver Phillip Dorsett after Andrew Luck was lost for the season. Before that happened, though, Brissett started two games for the Pats in his rookie year when Brady served a four-game suspension over the DeflateGate scandal, and then-backup Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. Brissett completed 34 of 55 passes for 400 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions, but he did look pretty good as an option quarterback when Belichick and his staff changed up the playbook in a 27-0 Week win over the Texans.
Neither Colts head coach Frank Reich nor Colts general manager Chris Ballard have expressed conviction that Brissett, who signed a one-year, $30 million extension with Indianapolis last September, is in their long-term plans. Last season, Brissett completed 60.9% of his passes for 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions in a safe passing offense that left everyone involved a bit disappointed. Were the Colts to make a big splash in free agency or the draft for Luck’s long-term replacement, Brissett might find his way back to Foxboro in a trade. He’s signed through the 2020 season with a $21.375 million cap hit, which is a bit prohibitive, but he does know the Patriots’ system to a point.
Jameis Winston
Here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s say Brady winds up in Tampa (which I believe would be his best landing spot for a number of reasons). Would it make any sense for Jameis Winston, who Brady would replace, to replace him? Last season, of course, Winston became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. He also led the league in passing attempts with 626, and passing yards with 5,109. There is no denying Winston’s raw talent — there is also no denying Winston’s rogue gene that has him believing he can throw into any coverage in any situation with impunity. He would likely be a developmental project for Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Winston has faced the Patriots once in his career — a 19-14 loss in 2017 in which Winston completed 26 of 46 passes for 334 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Leading up to that game, Belichick had a lot of praise for Winston and then-Bucs offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.
“With Winston, I think [Koetter’s] done a great job with him in two years, probably, arguably as good as any coach has done with any quarterback in the first two years of a career,” Belichick said, via the Tampa Bay Times. “Some of that’s the player, but certainly a lot of that’s the guy coaching him, the guy working with him every day. I think Coach Koetter and his staff have done a great job there.”
Asked what Winston would have to do to be considered a franchise quarterback, Belichick made it simple.
“He’s pretty much already done it in two years. What more do you want him to do?”
Probably be a bit more careful with the ball for Belichick’s taste, but there you go.
The remainders
Beyond that, the options get thinner. There are those who believe that Andy Dalton would be an ideal safe replacement for Brady, which makes me wonder which Andy Dalton those people have been watching over the last few seasons. Prying Dalton away from the Bengals with a mid-round pick would be an easy thing to do at this point, but the Patriots would be wise to back this up with a young quarterback in the draft.
Jarrett Stidham, who the Patriots took in the fourth round of the 2019 draft out of Auburn, completed two of four passes for 14 yards. He also completed a pass to Jets safety Jamal Adams in mop-up duty, which turned out to be Stidham’s only “touchdown” of the 2019 campaign.
Overthrowing a simple swing pass does dot bode well for Mr. Stidham’s future. Belichick put Brady back in that game because he couldn’t stand it anymore, which tells you all you need to know.
The draft
This is the safest bet for the future. As Belichick has said over and over through the last 20 years, the Patriots had no idea what they had in Brady, or they never would have let him slip to the 199th overall pick in the 2000 draft. Is there a similar sleeper in the 2020 draft? Perhaps the Patriots would enjoy trying to see if Georgia’s Jake Fromm can increase his arm talent to match his mental makeup. Or, maybe a tools prospect like Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts would be appealing. Given the sea change in the ways the quarterback position is valued and evaluated these days, it makes sense that Belichick might like to have his own Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Russell Wilson.
Those quarterbacks are hard to find, but the kind Belichick had over the last 20 years is the hardest of all to replace. That process begins now.
