12 months ago at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Josh Berry wheeled the historic #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford into Victory Lane and became the 206th different winner in NASCAR Cup Series history.
It was a surprise win with Berry leading just 18 laps, and since then, no other driver has added their name to the NASCAR Cup Series winners list.
Before Berry, Harrison Burton won for the first time in 2024, and Shane van Gisbergen in 2023, so there is usually at least one new winner most years. 2022 was an outlier with a four first-time winners in the first year of the Next Gen car: Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Chase Briscoe who became the sport's 200th different winner in Cup.
But who will follow Berry and become the 207th? It's already nearly happened this year, and there are a handful of drivers who are clearly the most likely to get the job done. Of the 36 full-time drivers, eleven have never visited Victory Lane in a points-paying race, but here are the top candidates to join that club of 200+ members:
1. Carson Hocevar -- Best finish of 2nd
It's clear that Hocevar is incredibly close to Victory Lane. He was leading at the white flag of the 2026 Daytona 500 and restarted on the front row for the final restart at Atlanta. The Spire Motorsports driver recently locked himself into a contract that will keep him at the team until the 2030s, so his singular focus is winning. The 23-year-old has four top fives, including two runner-up finishes during the 2025 season, and he's led 141 laps. It's a matter of when, not if he wins a Cup race.
2. Ty Gibbs -- Best finish of 2nd
Gibbs nearly won just a few days ago at Phoenix. He was leading the race when Ryan Blany passed him with about ten laps to go, and the former O'Reilly Series champion still went on to score his second consecutive top five finish. Gibbs has the unfortunate distinction of the most starts of any driver in JGR history without a race win, but he has been close. In 127 starts, Gibbs has 19 top top fives, 35 top tens, two poles, and 852 laps led. No other winless driver comes close to those numbers. It's shocking that he has yet to win a race, and his grandfather's team is doing whatever they can to help Ty finally reach Victory Lane.
3. Ryan Preece -- Best finish of 3rd
Preece has won a Cup race, just not a points-paying one. The RFK Racing driver earned an impressive win in the rain/snow/dry Clash exhibition race at Bowman Gray at the start of the year. It was an emotional win, and only served to motivate Preece further in his quest to win an 'official' race at the Cup level. He already has victories at the two lower national levels, and has finished as high as third in Cup. He also earned a second-place finish in a photo finish at Talladega last year, but was later disqualified for a technical infraction. He has 227 starts since 2015, so he's one of the most experienced drivers on this list. That includes seven top fives, with three of those coming just last year. 133 of his 313 career laps led also took place during the 2025 season.
4. Connor Zilisch -- Best finish of 11th
The rising star and Cup rookie has had a difficult start to his first full-time season, with crashes and gremlins hindering his efforts. But we have seen flashes of speed, especially at COTA. If not for two restart spins, he could have won that race, and there are still three road/street courses left on the 2026 schedule. This is also similar to his rookie season in O'Reilly, where he got off two a slow start before everything suddenly clicked. He still doesn't have a top ten as a Cup driver, but he also only has seven starts. There's plenty of time for him to figure it out and shake off this bad luck streak.
5. Zane Smith -- Best finish of 2nd
This is a name we may not have placed fifth on this list just a few weeks ago, but the Front Row Motorsports driver is doing an impressive job early in 2026. He nearly won the Daytona 500, earned another strong finish at Atlanta, and if not for an incident on the final restart at COTA, could have opened the year with three consecutive top tens. While FRM hasn't won a Cup race since 2023, and Smith's most realistic shot is on a drafting track, he's still worth paying attention to. And even with that being said, Smith's best result came at Nashville in 2024, finishing second, and he also earned an impressive third-place finish at Bristol last year. So, he could potentially get it done at any track on the schedule.
Other full-time drivers without a win: Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, John-Hunter Nemechek, Riley Herbst, Ty Dillon, Cody Ware.
