Another day closer to the presidential election, another slew of surveys – most of them showing that Hillary Clinton is in the lead. But the size of the Democratic candidate’s advantage varies considerably from poll to poll, partly because some questionnaires ask voters to consider the fact that there are more than two presidential nominees. Green party candidate Jill Stein is on the ballot in 45 states and voters in another three states can choose to write her name in. And the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is on the ballot in 50 states.
Progressives who are feeling turned off by Clinton and/or Donald Trump, the two most unpopular candidates in decades, might be considering a protest vote for one of these other parties (“protest” in the sense that third-party candidates have a less than 0.1% chance of winning). With just four days to go until the election, they might be wondering who will be hindered more by a protest vote – Democrat Clinton or Republican Trump?
As with all of the articles I have written so far about polling data, the answer is a very unsexy “it depends”. The impact of protest votes varies throughout the country.
In total, 33 states can probably be viewed as “safe” states based on the fact that one of the candidates is leading by at least seven percentage points (the numbers are polling averages collected by Real Clear Politics). When analysts talk about the electoral map working in Clinton’s favor, they are referring to the fact that 14 of these states (plus the District of Columbia) look like they’ll vote Democratic and together they’re worth 187 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. Based on the same threshold of “safe”, Trump can only count on 152 college votes.
More importantly, there are 17 states in the US that can be viewed as competitive based on the fact that six percentage points or less separate Clinton and Trump. Some of these states are unlikely to swing the entire election, though, because they don’t have many electoral college votes. Alaska is one such example; although Trump has a narrow lead, the state is only worth three electoral college votes so has little power in changing the national result.
Here’s a quick guide to where voting for a third party could affect which of the two main candidates wins. It’s based on a close race (ie places where Clinton and Trump are close in the polls) and state influence (ie 10 electoral college votes or more – but if the race ends up being very close, the reality will be that every electoral college vote will matter to Trump and Clinton, and states like Iowa and New Hampshire will become important). For voters who consider a Trump win their worst-case scenario, these are states where choosing a third-party candidate could help secure a Republican victory.
Florida
Number of electoral college votes: 29
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by 1.2 percentage points
Detail: Clinton 47.4%, Trump 46.2%, Johnson 2.4%, Stein 1.3%
Notes: Early ballots suggest that Hispanic turnout has increased, which is good news for Clinton. Nearly one in five eligible voters in Florida is Hispanic and they typically lean heavily Democrat. Nevertheless, with such razor thin margins, votes in this state for Johnson and Stein that could have gone to Clinton will do real damage to the Democrats nationally.
Pennsylvania
Number of electoral college votes: 20
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by three percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.8%, Trump 43.8%, Johnson 3.0%, Stein 2.0%
Ohio
Number of electoral college votes: 18
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by 3.3 percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.3%, Trump 43.0%, Johnson 4.7%, Stein 1.5%
Michigan
Number of electoral college votes: 16
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by 5.7 percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.0%, Trump 40.3%, Johnson 5.3%, Stein 2.3%
Georgia
Number of electoral college votes: 16
Current polling: Trump is ahead by 4.8 percentage points
Detail: Trump 48.3%, Clinton 43.5%, Johnson 4.3%
Notes: The black vote is crucial for Clinton in this state. While 13% of the total US population is black or African American, in Georgia that share is 32% according to the Census Bureau. It looks like Clinton will lose this state, not least because early ballots suggest black turnout has fallen considerably in Georgia.
North Carolina
Number of electoral college votes: 15
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by two percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.8%, Trump 44.8%, Johnson 3.7%, Stein 0.7%
Virginia
Number of electoral college votes: 13
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by 5.2 percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.6%, Trump 41.4%, Johnson 4.4%, Stein 1.8%
Arizona
Number of electoral college votes: 11
Current polling: Trump is ahead by four percentage points
Detail: Trump 46.3%, Clinton 42.3%, Johnson 5.0%, Stein 1.8%
Wisconsin
Number of electoral college votes: 10
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by 5.4 percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.7%, Trump 41.3%, Johnson 5.7%, Stein 2.0%
Minnesota
Number of electoral college votes: 10
Current polling: Clinton is ahead by six percentage points
Detail: Clinton 46.3%, Trump 40.3%, Johnson 5.0%, Stein 1.7%
