There’s plenty of competition across all categories at Sunday’s Grammy Awards, proving just how high the calibre is this year. In the Big Four – Best New Artist, Record, Song, Album of the Year – Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny and Florida rapper Doechii are competing against pop queens Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter and Billie Eilish, while Olivia Dean is a favourite to scoop Best New Artist over fledgling pop star Addison Rae and her fellow Brit, Lola Young.
Here are my picks for who will (plus who should) win in the Big Four categories at the 2026 Grammys. You can find the full list of nominations here.
Best New Artist
Olivia Dean
Katseye
The Marías
Addison Rae
sombr
Leon Thomas
Alex Warren
Lola Young
Dean and Young are the only UK representatives in this year’s Big Four, marking the first time British artists haven’t been nominated in Song, Record or Album of the Year since 2018. While either one of them would be worthy winners, it really feels like this is Dean’s moment, considering the breathtaking success of her second album, The Art of Loving and its singles “Man I Need” and “Nice to Each Other”.
She’s also the kind of artist the Recording Academy adores; her music feels classic, timeless, but still hugely relevant thanks to the themes of self-worth, relationships and love that course through her songwriting.
Meanwhile, Sombr might have hurt his chances with a splash of controversy towards the end of last year, when he sparred with fans who complained about his live performances – even without that, I doubt his yearning, hook-filled but somewhat forgettable pop left much of an impression on voters. R&B crooner Leon Thomas could be in with a shot following the success of his viral single “MUTT”, while Addison Rae is still somewhat on the periphery of pop’s mainstream, in spite of acclaim for her debut album, Addison.
Should win: Olivia Dean
Will win: Olivia Dean
Record of the Year
“DtMF” – Bad Bunny
“Manchild” – Sabrina Carpenter
“Anxiety” – Doechii
“Wildflower” – Billie Eillish
“Abracadabra” – Lady Gaga
“Luther” – Kendrick Lamar with SZA
“The Subway” – Chappell Roan
“APT” – Rosé and Bruno Mars
Last year’s Best New Artist winner Chappell Roan should be the one to walk away with 2026’s Record of the Year. “The Subway” is the perfect break-up song, a glimmering slice of synth-pop that finds the Missouri-born artist haunted by memories of her ex wherever she goes. The production is superb: you have the background rumble of the train before those lush, Cure-y guitar tones kick in alongside Roan’s swooning lilt, the subtle percussion and the moments that fall away to leave her voice and simple guitar strokes. She’s also a worthy contender for Song of the Year, which recognises songwriting (lyrics and melody) – the storytelling in “The Subway” is gorgeous – but we’ll get to that category in a moment.
Other Record of the Year candidates: Bad Bunny with “DtMF”, whose sweet and summery production pairs beautifully with the bittersweet nostalgia of his lyrics. Rosé and Bruno Mars (the latter a Grammys favourite) with the teeth-gritting, impossibly catchy, Ting-Tings-emulating “APT”, and Doechii’s viral “Anxiety”. Eilish, Carpenter and Gaga are also Grammy darlings, but none of their entries this year feel relevant enough to pull the voters’ attention.
Should win: “The Subway” – Chappell Roan
Will win: “The Subway” – Chappell Roan
Song of the Year
“Abracadabra” – Lady Gaga
“Anxiety” – Doechii
“APT” – Rosé and Bruno Mars
“DtMF” – Bad Bunny
“Golden [From KPop Demon Hunters]” – HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami
“Luther” – Kendrick Lamar With SZA
“Manchild” – Sabrina Carpenter
“Wildflower” – Billie Eilish
OK, so yes, “The Subway” would be a worthy winner here too, but “APT” is likely to scoop the prize – it’s an earworm that earned juggernaut commercial success this last year, there’s no way you haven’t heard this song at some point. It’s highly unlikely they’ll give Song of the Year to Lamar for the second year in a row (he won in 2025 for the Drake-defeating diss track, “Not Like Us”). Many might say “Golden” by HUNTR/X from the soundtrack for Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters is an obvious choice, but I’m not convinced voters will want to hand one of their biggest awards to a group best known for voicing animated characters in a children’s TV show.
Should win: “The Subway” – Chappell Roan
Will win: “APT” – Rose and Bruno Mars
Album of the Year
Debí Tirar Más Fotos – Bad Bunny
Swag – Justin Bieber
Man’s Best Friend – Sabrina Carpenter
Let God Sort Em Out – Clipse, Pusha T & Malice
Mayhem – Lady Gaga
GNX – Kendrick Lamar
Mutt – Leon Thomas
Chromakopia – Tyler, the Creator
The Grammys love a moment, and who’s having a bigger moment in February than Bad Bunny, set to headline the Super Bowl amid the turmoil of Trump’s America? He’d deserve it regardless, Debí Tirar Más Fotos is an extraordinary melting pot of plena, salsa and reggaeton, across which the artist born Benito Antonio Martinez Ocasio ruminates on the fate of his beloved Puerto Rico. It’s intelligent, sexy and complex.
Justin Bieber’s Swag is too long, sprawling and uneven, while the reception to Lady Gaga’s Mayhem felt, for all its high octane drama, somewhat underwhelming. There were similar reactions to Carpenter’s seventh album, Man’s Best Friend, and for Tyler, the Creator’s surprise release, Chromakopia. Kendrick Lamar has yet to take home Album of the Year, having been snubbed so many times in the past – could GNX do it?
Should win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos – Bad Bunny
Will win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos – Bad Bunny
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