HARTFORD, Conn. — As good as the No. 2 UConn women’s basketball team may be this year, it won’t be a cakewalk for the Huskies to take home the program’s 12th national title. No. 1 South Carolina looks as threatening as ever. Reigning national champion Stanford (No. 3) returns nearly everybody. No. 4 Maryland and No. 5 NC State are among the teams that can’t be overlooked.
To weigh in on the broader NCAA women’s basketball scene, The Hartford Courant surveyed women’s basketball reporters and analysts from across the country, all of whom are Associated Press poll voters: Michelle Smith, who covers the Pac-12 for Pac-12.com; David Cloninger, who covers South Carolina for The Post and Courier; Carl Adamec, who covers UConn for The Manchester Journal Inquirer; Mitchell Northam, who covers the ACC for The Next; and Debbie Antonelli, a national analyst for ESPN.
What do you expect to see from Paige Bueckers as a sophomore?
— Smith: Bueckers is in a position to make a big jump between her freshman and sophomore seasons, which is saying something. Hard to imagine anything different.
— Cloninger: Bueckers will continue to play at a national player of the year-level, and even more so now that folks expect her to win the award again.
— Adamec: Paige will become the first UConn player to average better than 6.0 assists per game (Sue Bird has the single-season record at 5.92), and she will be the Big East leader in steals. She’ll play fewer minutes than a year ago and won’t average 20 points per game because she won’t have to. I expect a national player of the year-caliber season.
— Northam: The Huskies will go as Bueckers goes. She’s the clear leader on the team, and she’ll be among the favorites to win national player of the year.
— Antonelli: 1. The Paige Buckets trademark is all you need to know! I don’t think any player has done that on the men’s or women’s side of college hoops.
2. Consistently makes the defense wrong. Bring any defensive scheme, you will be wrong.
3. Elite offensive skills package.
How big of a role will Azzi Fudd play on this Huskies team?
— Smith: Azzi Fudd’s role on this team will be interesting considering that the starting lineup seems fairly set to open the season. Fudd could play a spark plug role off the bench for a while as she gets settled into the college game, which is actually a great scenario for both her and Geno.
— Cloninger: Fudd will be one of Geno Auriemma’s top six that he rotates and most likely the second-leading scorer.
— Adamec: Huge! That said, I would not be surprised if Geno uses her as the sixth woman as he traditionally has liked his team to get better offensively when he first goes to the bench (you can go back a quarter-century to Nykesha Sales and Shea Ralph for that). Azzi may not start, but she’ll get starters minutes and will be on the floor if a game is decided late.
— Northam: If everything we’ve heard about Fudd as a prospect is true, she should start for the Huskies and be one of the team’s leading scorers. Bueckers and Fudd could be as good as any one-two punch in college basketball.
— Antonelli: 1. No. 1-rated high school player ready to ball-out.
2. Efficient shot maker, spacer, cutter who works at game speed.
3. Advanced offensive skills set.
UConn will win the national championship if ...
— Adamec: Olivia Nelson-Ododa has an All-America type season.
— Northam: Everyone stays healthy and they avoid drawing a matchup with South Carolina in the NCAA Tournament.
— Antonelli: The Huskies will win if they stay healthy, are a 1 or 2 seed in Bridgeport (which should happen), they handle ball pressure in full court better than last year (if anyone dares to press them, which never happens) and make shots. They have talent, attention to detail and execute with discipline. Same story, different pieces for UConn! All positive!
There seems to be a consensus that South Carolina, UConn and Stanford are in a tier above the rest. Do you think this will remain the case all season?
— Smith: They are clearly the three teams with the most depth and talent, but South Carolina will face both teams during the nonconference schedule, which will tell us who is the title front-runner well before March. Beyond that, I think there are two to three more teams — Maryland, Oregon, North Carolina State — with a true shot at a Final Four berth. I’m not sure I see any of them winning a title ahead of the big three at this point.
— Cloninger: Those three teams seem to have the most going for them, although Maryland and Baylor, I think, will be right there with them. Even though the women’s Final Four is mostly the usual suspects, there sometimes is that team that gets hot and gets on a run. And once you get there, it’s only two more wins.
— Adamec: No. North Carolina State will be really, really good. Also, look out for the Big Ten with Maryland, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan. It has the most quality it’s maybe ever had.
— Northam: Those three teams should certainly be in the conversation all season long, but I think two other teams have a good shot at the national championship: Maryland and NC State. The Terps bring back almost every single player from the nation’s best offense last season. The Wolfpack brought back all five starters from an ACC championship team, and they added Diamond Johnson, who made the All-Big Ten team as a freshman at Rutgers.
— Antonelli: NC State and Maryland and Louisville are elite level teams with South Carolina, Stanford and UConn.
Preseason predictions
National player of the year
— Smith: Bueckers (UConn)
— Cloninger: NaLyssa Smith (Baylor)
— Northam: Bueckers (UConn)
Freshman of the year
— Smith: Fudd (UConn)
— Cloninger: Fudd (UConn)
— Northam: Olivia Miles (Notre Dame)
All-American team
— Smith: Bueckers (UConn), Aliyah Boston (South Carolina), Haley Jones (Stanford), Caitlin Clark (Iowa) and Rhyne Howard (Kentucky)
— Cloninger: Bueckers (UConn), Boston (South Carolina), Howard (Kentucky), Smith (Baylor), Naz Hillmon (Michigan)
— Northam: Bueckers (UConn), Clark (Iowa), Boston (South Carolina), Kierstan Bell (FGCU), Elissa Cunane (NC State)
Final Four teams
— Smith: Stanford, South Carolina, UConn, Maryland
— Cloninger: UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Baylor
— Northam: UConn, South Carolina, Maryland, NC State
National champion
— Smith: South Carolina
— Cloninger: South Carolina
— Northam: South Carolina
